Now With More Blog!

Those swell guys over at Seattle Sports Central are letting me put my thoughts on them, not unlike a Mariner blogging tea-bagging. Please go have yourself a look-see.

The Logjams (Not An Indie Band)

With the Los Angeles Yankees of Anaheim and the Texas Red Sox vying for dominance in the 2012 AL West, the Mariners' playoff hopes start the year at a distinct disadvantage. Now, I'm not one to blithely declare a season over before it begins but it's worth looking to the team's future to determine if there may be any hope on the horizon. Sometimes hope is all we have.

With that, taking a look at this year's spring training battles and the projected AAA roster, we see some possible roster issues beginning to take shape. Let's dive in.

Spring Training Battles:

3B C. Guillen/C. Figgins/K. Seager/A. Liddi

LF M. Carp/ C. Wells/ M. Saunders

CA J. Montero/ M. Olivo/ J. Jaso/ A. Moore/ C. Gimenez

Util L. Rodriguez/ M. Kawasaki

As you can see, with the bench roles available this will be a battle of 14 players for 7 roster spots. Considering how this is likely to shake out (explanation below) the AAA roster will likely appear as follows:

Rainiers:

CA A. Moore/J. Jaso/C. Gimenez

1B ?? (likely M. Mangini)

2B K. Seager

3B A. Liddi

SS N. Franklin

LF V. Catricala

CF T. Robinson

RF C. Peguero

DH M. Wilson

Bench:

L. Rodriguez or M. Kawasaki

One or two of the three Catchers

L. Jimenez

An explanation is in order as to how this AAA roster was constructed. Follow along.

CA: M. Olivo and J. Montero will likely job share. Eric Wedge MIGHT shoehorn a third catcher onto the 25-man in Jaso or Gimenez but that's unlikely and leaves three players to fight it out in AAA.

1B: Nobody. Poythress is likely to repeat AA and signs point to the team developing Catricala in the outfield in order to get his bat to the bigs as quickly as possible. Mangini has manned 3B and DH the past couple of years in AAA and fared...kinda OK...but with the 3B/DH logjam and his stagnating development he will likely be relegated to filling an organization need as opposed to being developed as a legit major-league prospect.

2B: Geoff Baker laid out a great argument as to why Kyle Seager is not as likely to break camp on the big league roster as some people may think. He's miscast as a third baseman and is a natural fit at second. For his own sake and to increase his trade value, the M's will likely develop him here.

3B: Alex Liddi has been featured in the Future's Game and got his first cup of coffee last year. He's the incumbent at this position and there's no reason to move him off, sub-par defense be damned. With Francisco Martinez behind him in AA there's no reason for the M's to stick any organizational filler here like Luis Rodriguez and they should and will focus on developing the talent at hand.

SS: Nick Franklin had Job's lotto ticket last year and consequently had his year cut short. He still flashed better tools than Carlos Triunfel despite being a year younger. He should get the nod over Triunfel at Cheney which would allow Carlos a consolidation year in AA.

LF: If Michael Saunders doesn't make the cut as the fourth outfielder out of Spring Training and ends up clearing waivers, he can conceivably end up here. He's out of options so it's a make or break spring for him. Mike Wilson could also slot here or at DH. He re-signed with the club despite being a minor-league free agent. Considering that he must have known that he'd be unlikely to get another shot at the bigs on this club and re-signed anyway it's probably safe to assume that he's not going anywhere. Vinnie Catricala mentioned several times at FanFest that the organization will try him in the outfield in order to hasten the arrival of his offense to the bigs, despite his preference for third base.

CF: This position is Trayvon Robinson's to lose.

RF: Carlos Peguero has this position locked down.

DH: This will be a rotation of Luis Jimenez, Mike Wilson, and Chris Gimenez (to keep him relatively fresh).

With all the prospects and organizational depth (filler) in AAA any AA prospect who's looking for a mid-season promotion is gonna have to knock Chris Gwynn's socks off. The Mariner's depth is much stronger this year and it's gonna take a lot of furrowed brows in the Safeco Field offices to make it work.

Payroll For Some Reason

So a lot of people seem to be really interested in the Mariner's payroll. I can't imagine their reasoning. Any budgetary "limits" are certainly arbitrary and no reasonable projection can be made from this. Also; the Mariners, like all MLB teams, are notorious for keeping their budget secret. Nonetheless, I live to serve. Here is my understanding of the Mariner's 2012 budget. Figures are based of off Cot's Contracts.

Note: There's some wiggle room in these figures depending on how you choose to figure incentives and Ichiro's deferment. These numbers do not include front office, scouting, or managerial salaries. It also does not reflect the draft budget, signing bonuses, baseball academy maintenance, affiliate fees (if applicable), stadium expenditures, travel expenses, equipment, consultant fees, or the salary of any player not on the 40-man roster (you begin to see why I feel this is a waste of time). It also doesn't include Carlos Guillen's (likely) $1.5 mil.

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K
1
2			MLS thru '11 season		salary + p-r bonus
3			Pos'n	ML Srv		2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
4	1	Ichiro Suzuki	RF	11	5 yr/$90M (08-12)	$18,000,000	FA
5	2	Felix Hernandez	RHP-S	6.06	5 yr/$78M (10-14)	$19,200,000	$20.20	$20.70
6	3	Chone Figgins	3B	8.145	4 yr/$36M (10-13)+14 opt	$9,500,000	$8.50	opt
7	4	Franklin Gutierrez	CF	5.08	4 yr/$20.25M (10-13)+14 cl opt	$5,813,000	$7.31	$0.50
8	5	Miguel Olivo	C	8.171	2 yr/$7M (11-12)+13 cl opt	$3,750,000	$0.75
9	6	Jason Vargas	LHP-S	4.114	1 yr/$2.45M (11)	$4,850,000	Arb 3	FA
10	7	Brandon League	RHP	5.145	1 yr/$2.25M (11)	$5,000,000	FA
11	8	Dustin Ackley	2B	0.105	5 yr/$7.5M (09-13)	$1,500,000	$1.50
12	9	Brendan Ryan	SS	4.082	2 yr/$2.75M (11-12)	$1,750,000	Arb 3	FA
13	10	Hisashi Iwakuma	RHP-S	0	1 yr/$1.5M (12)	$1,500,000	FA
14	11	George Sherrill	LHP	6.147	1 yr/$1.1M (12)	$1,100,000	FA
15	12	Cesar Jimenez	LHP	2.07		$420,000	Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
16	13	John Jaso	C	2.032	1 yr/$0.4272M (11)	$420,000	Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
17	14	Shawn Kelley	RHP	2.16	1 yr/$0.42M (11)	$420,000	Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
18	15	Chris Gimenez	C	2.041	1 yr (12)	$420,000	Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
19	16	Michael Saunders	OF	1.138	1 yr/$0.42M (11)	$420,000		Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
20	17	Justin Smoak	1B	1.116	1 yr/$0.419M (11)	$420,000		Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
21	18	Casper Wells	OF	1.05	1 yr/$0.418M (11)	$420,000		Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
22	19	Adam Moore	C	1.167	1 yr/$0.4175M (11)	$420,000	Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	Arb 4	FA
23	20	Mauricio Robles	LHP	0.075	1 yr/$0.414M (11)	$420,000
24	21	Tom Wilhelmsen	RHP	0.106	1 yr/$0.414M (11)	$420,000
25	22	Blake Beavan	RHP	0.088		$420,000
26	23	Mike Carp	1B	1.01		$420,000		Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
27	24	Johermyn Chavez	OF	0		$420,000
28	25	Steve Delabar	RHP	0.023		$420,000
29	26	Charlie Furbush	LHP	0.121		$420,000
30	27	Danny Hultzen	LHP-S
31	28	Alex Liddi	3B	0.023		$420,000
32	29	Lucas Leutge	LHP	0		$420,000
33	30	Yoervis Medina	RHP	0		$420,000
34	31	Jesus Montero	C	0.028		$420,000
35	32	Hector Noesi	RHP	0.139		$420,000
36	33	Carlos Peguero	OF	0.076		$420,000
37	34	Trayvon Robinson	OF	0.055		$420,000
38	35	Chance Ruffin	RHP	0.066		$420,000
39	36	Kyle Seager	2B/3B	0.085		$420,000
40	37	Fransisco Martinez	3B	0		$420,000
41	38	Carlos Triunfel	IF	0		$420,000
42	39	Chih-Hsien Chiang	OF	0		$420,000
43	40	Mike Wilson	OF	0.03		$420,000
44	.	TOTAL				$83,723,000

Allowing for wiggle-room and the above caveats, the Mariner's 40-man roster expenditure is, roughly, $84 million. This is about a $10 mil. dollar decrease from last year. Make of this what you will.

Riffing Off Of Other People's Content

Keith Meyers at Sodo Mojo put forth a proposal for addressing the 3B issue with the Mariners this year. He identified Daniel Murphy of the NY Mets as a plausible trade target in that Murphy is pretty good, kinda young, blocked, and on a team with weaknesses that can be addressed via trade. Basically, it can be a win-win move and we all know how much Jack Z likes the win-win deal. So. Would Daniel Murphy be a good fit for the Mariners? Let’s see. He can hit, he can

–SOLD!—
Wait. There’s more.

— Don’t care. You said he can hit. I’m in. —

Nonono. It’s not as simple as that. There are other factors, many other factors, that can have a significant influence on his ability to help a team, this team, contend. What kind of hitter is he? Can he play defense? Can he do it well? Can he stay healthy? How would his personality fit in to the clubhouse? Browncoats or Imp

–Don’t care—

*Sigh* Look. I did some digging. Allow me the courtesy. Please bear with me.

— : / —

Ready? 3…2…1…*ROAR*
— *ROAR*—
Thanks for bear-ing with me. Now, to continue.
Facts: Murphy is 27 years old. He’s had 1,130 plate appearances in The Bigs. He bats left and throws right. He’s had a history of knee problems. He’s been the Mets’ utility player in the consummate National League mold. Statistically speaking, he’s been a poor defensive outfielder and a good defensive infielder (defensive metric caveats apply). He’s got a greater than average contact percentage. His career ISO is .149 which is a tick above average and, considering his ability to make contact, is very good. He strikes out much less than league average because he puts the ball in play so much. He’s not a very big stolen base threat, having stolen 9 total bases in his career.

According to this article the Mets continue to work him out at second base and are open to trading him. In return they’d, at least, want a swing-man starter, one who could be used as both a spot starter and out of the bullpen. It’s like they were trying to describe Charlie Furbush.

Any trade would have to net them a replacement. Someone who could presumably play second base but also has enough versatility to be a useful NL roving player. I submit, Kyle Seager.

To incentivize the Mets to give up their utility player, we would need a sweetener. Consider their need for outfield depth, versatility, and a bridge to the future. Duda’s good but Torres and Bay aren’t. Wells would be perfect for them.

3 players with Major-League experience for 1 utility player would be a touch imbalanced. We would need a prospect coming back. Not any of their top 3 pitchers or anything but a significant one. Maybe someone who’s stock has taken a recent hit, like Wilmer Flores. Or Mazzoni or Nimmo or Fulmer or whomever.

So: M’s send IF Seager, LHP Furbush, and OF Wells for IF Murphy and [insert prospect here]. I think it’s in the realm of possibility. Is that giving up too much? It’s giving up too much, isn’t it?

: /

Wells’s inclusion is too much. Maybe we’d have to up the prospect. Trouble is their top 3, Wheeler, Harvey, and Familia, are significant pitching prospects. Wheeler and Harvey are just a nock below where Pineda was a year ago. And I don’t like Familia.
Man, trading is hard. Maybe we should just stick with Seager and see what he can do, huh?

— Are you done? —

Hey, shaddup. It’s my blog and no one else reads it anyway. I’ll do what I want. If I want to bounce ideas off of my blog for my own sake, then I’ll do it. This ain’t no fangraphs.

— *rolls eyes*—

So the question is: How do we feel about Kyle Seager? Of course, smarter people than I have addressed this issue and failed to reach a definitive conclusion. Considering what I’ve seen from him defensively, I like him at 2nd and not so much at 3rd. His throws always have this banana curve to them and can get pretty crazy the further away he is from his target. His hands, range, and instincts seem fine. It seems to me that he’d benefit from having a shorter throw to first. Offensively: He tore through the minors and ended up with a .306 wOBA in 201 major league plate appearances as a green rookie. (Murphy’s career wOBA is .338 at this point, for comparison’s sake.)

Are the Mariners capable of starting *gulp* Chone Figgins at 3rd and optioning Seager to the minors? Would a Liddi, Franklin, Seager, Catricala infield in Tacoma work? I know it’d make Mike Curto happy. Whither Truinfel? Back to AA? Poythress repeats? If they did that and Seager were officially blocked by Ackley, whither Seager’s future?

Would it be in the Mariner’s best interest to play Seager at 3rd in the majors? He’s an unproven commodity but so far has held his own at the plate. His throws, though. Ick. Can his offense make up for the occasional bad throw? We don’t know yet. Is it worth taking this year to find out? I don’t know. I’m not one for throwing in the towel before the first punch is thrown. How effective can the team be while continuing a try-out at an historically offense-oriented position? This is something that I will have a close eye on during spring-training. And by close eye I mean reading Larry Stone’s blog and Shannon Drayer’s tweets from thousands of miles away.
: (
Stupid not having disposable income.

—Conclusion? —

None. Might be a good idea. Might not considering the price of Murphy’s acquisition and how you feel about Seager.

—Brilliant. —
Man, you’re moody today. Is it Prince? Is it that Prince isn’t signed yet?
—…yes. —
You need a hug. A BEAR hug! See what I did there? I know, I know, it was an ursinine comment.

Thoughts

1. After digesting the Montero/Pineda deal (which is still not official) I find myself liking it more and more. The pros and cons have been discussed and well covered by smarter and more eloquent people than I. Initially I didn't like the Noesi/Campos swap but, ultimately, with Campos as far away from the majors as he is and Noesi's recent MLB debut, I like it more.

2. Fielder: IF the M's are still in on Fielder it would create a problem. A good problem of how to cram all this offense into the lineup but a problem nonetheless. Most people are saying, "Just let Montero catch." Even those people will admit, however, that a catching jobshare is the best situation in that regard. On his non-catching days you'd have Smoak, Fielder, and Montero for 1B and DH.

And to those who say that we just flip Smoak for something, no. His value is down and I think that most people will want to see what he does this year before giving up on talent like his. Kid can hit. Remember, Jack had the opportunity for either Montero or Smoak for Lee and took Smoak.

3. Rotation is currently Felix, Vargas, Iwakuma, Noesi, and Beavan with a chance of Hultzen making it out of Spring Training and Furbush as the spot starter. I know a lot of people are excited about our young pitching but, stop and think. Hultzen is, realistically, a mid-season call-up, Paxton is probably ready next year, and Taijuan the year after. It's a pipeline, sure, but there are 5 (really 6 or 7) rotation spots to fill. Vargas is going to be a free agent, Iwakuma's gone after this year, and Beavan and Furbush ain't lighting the world on fire. Losing Pineda hurt. Let's just hope that the big three all pan out and Erasamo, somehow, becomes Erasamo!.

4. I hope F-Gut gets back to hitting well. I really, really hope.

5. I can't think of any subject with more written about it and with less knowledge on the subject than a major-league team's payroll. Is it different for the 25-man or 40-man? Are deferments taken into account? How? Is the draft and international free agent budget considered? How? There are so so many ways that a team can fudge their numbers that you can't really trust anything that they say. Even the Forbes reports that came out a couple years ago.

I'm Kinda A "Big Deal" 'Round Here.

So, reportedly, M's and Yanks make a deal. M's are reported to have swapped SP Michael Pineda and SP Jose Campos for Hitter Jesus Montero and SP Hector Noesi.

Pineda and Campos are both big losses. Pineda is a dominant, proven starter. Young, cheap, happy-go-lucky, flamethrowing, kid with command and, believe it or not, upside. It's a testament to how endearing he was in that I won't root against him, even in pinstripes.

Campos is a 19 year-old kid with crazy good numbers in A ball and a projectable frame. Reportedly a hard-worker and good kid to boot. Here's a Q&A Rick Randall did with him at his site.

Jesus Montero is the "it" hitting prospect of the moment. He jumped into the majors last year and fared pretty well, considering. People who's professional reputation is at stake are unequivocal in their expectation of his offensive game.

Hector Noemi debuted out of the Yankees 'pen last year. He's been mostly a starter in the minors with some pretty decent numbers. I'm sure he'll be given a shot out of Spring Training.

Basically, M's swapped pitching for offense. Given their roster construction and Prince's lack of any sense of timely decision-making, Jack Z had to make this move. He HAD to. It was the right thing to do. Even though, emotionally, ow. Pineda. *sniff*

M's stick it to Boras

Jack Z, sitting across the boardroom table from Boras and Co. with an offer sheet exactly in-between them.

Jack: Here. Here's what we can do.

Boras: Ah. Oh, man. You know? I heard that there was someone else willing to pay more. Do you know how much this guy is worth? He'd be your franchise! Surely he deserves better than this! *waves hand condescendingly*

Jack: This is the best offer you're going to get from any team this off season for this player. Take it.

Boras: Ah. Oh, man. You know? I'll tell him, I'll tell him. I can't guarantee anything, donchyaknow. I'm sure he'll consider it.

Jack: Quit jerking us around. You're being ridiculous. I'm not kidding, if you don't take it in the next...*checks watch* 5 days we're going to plan B and you'll never sniff anything close to this deal.

Boras: Right, right. Sure, sure. I got it.

::5 days later::

Jack: We rescind our offer. We've traded for Jesus Montero. Congratulations, you've screwed your client over.

MLB High

Dear Diary,

Last night was pretty crazy. I was coming home from lunch with the girls at Chevy's. I'm almost home and I see an older but cute boy walking the other way on the other side of the street. I give him my patented skip-and-a-wave w/ smile/hair-flip crusher and he slowly smiles, waves, and walks on. And I just got this feeeeeling, y'know? Like, this means something. So I get home and my Dad is there and he tells me that we're gonna be hosting a foreign exchange student at our home. Well, all feeeeelings went right out the window and my stomach did a flip-flop. He was going to have little Kawasaki Kid stay here and I'd have to die every night.

But Dad zagged when I thought he was gonna zig. He said that we're hosting a kid named Hisashi and showed me his picture. It was the cute boy from the street! We're gonna re-do the office room and turn it into his room right down the hall from me.

Look at his picture! I'm gonna call him Mr. Bear.

Marina Sealth

MLB High

Dear Diary,
So George stopped by. It had been a while. Says he wants to go by GS52 like he’s some kinda white rapper now or something. I’m not doing it, I knew him when he was just George and I’m sticking to it. Anyway, George doesn’t do anything very well. I mean, ANYTHING. He’s bad at everything. EXCEPT at making omelettes. OMG his omelettes are AMAZING. I think he could be an Olympian omelette maker. I said he could make me an omelette sometime and that seemed to make him happy.
…
Man, now all I want is an omelette. Where’s George when you need him?

Marina Sealth

MLB High

Dear Diary,

So I told you that I’d fill you in on everything that happened with me. And, boy, where do I begin? Well, after Felix left to go visit his parents over the summer, I met a boy who seems really cool. He had been Bree’s long-time boyfriend but I guess has had some trouble with his dad and Bree couldn’t stick around that kind of drama. Drama, I can do. Did you know he doesn’t eat meat? That’s so cool!

I let him know through Scott (ugh, such a sleezebucket. How he gets in the middle of all these goings on is beyond me) that I’d like to spend some time with him. I haven’t heard back from him but I don’t think anyone else has either. I hear he might like Charlene (Cubbie, not Charlene Whitehead) or maybe Natalie Washington. Whatever. If he likes me he’ll make time for me.
…
I’M RIGHT HERE, PRINCE!

Anyway, Diary, you simply won’t believe it. So apparently Rachel told the underwear model about me (such a gossip) and he told his friend that I live in the same condo building as the Suzuki family. So the model’s friend, it turns out, is best friends with one of the kids over there. Guess who? That’s right, ICHIRO! I told Ichiro about it while he was helping me to pick out a scarf (Burberry, he always picks Burberry). Well, two days later this pimply, skinny kid shows up in front of our place on this little tiny Kawasaki motorcycle (I remember the weirdest details) with chocolate dipped strawberries asking to go on a date. In front of God and EVERYONE! I could’ve crawled into the sewer and DIED. It was so embarrassing! So my DAD comes outside and gives me this nod. The Kawasaki Kid told me that he had asked MY DAD if he could ask me on a date and got his PERMISSION before anyone thought to bring it up to ME! I swear, I DID die, right there, for, like, 12 seconds. This is the most horrible thing that’s ever happened to me. I had to say yes but I told him to meet me at The Cheesecake Factory on Friday. No WAY am I going WITH him. And maybe I can get some Cheesecake out of this.

I hope Prince calls on Thursday. I’d ditch this guy in a second and my Dad can go screw himself.

Marina Sealth

P.S. So I apparently need to join the foreign exchange club. I heard from a friend who heard from Rachel that some guy in Japan is thinking about moving here because he likes me. I don’t even know him! Annie told me that she was his pen-pal (she’s so weird) and they never really hit it off so that’s one point in his favor, I guess. Man, Felix is gonna be soooo jealous when he gets back. He’s always just the cutest when he gets so fired up.

MLB High

Dear Diary,
I know that it’s been a while since I’ve made an update. Things get in the way, drama happens, and I just plain forget for a while. Let me try to catch you up on this summer’s crazy happenings.

So Rachel, Angela, and I met at the mall and after we got some Orange Julius (tripleberry!) Rachel told me that she had gone to a crazy party at the end of spring. She said it lasted all night and that she almost lost her virginity! EEEK! I wouldn’t even know what to DO! Anyway she said Lois (who everyone thinks is such a NICE girl) swooped in and stole her guy. She said it was still an epic party though, one that people will talk about even after we’ve graduated.

So after summer started Albert let everyone know that he had heard about what had happened at the party (he was dating Lois at the time) and that he was totally dumping her. I asked Natalie who asked Astrid who asked Father Mike who asked the twins who asked Albert if he might be interested in me. Natalie told me that he said that he wasn’t interested in anyone on the Drill Team. The very next day at the mall Albert shows up and kisses Angela! Everybody flipped out, especially me because Angela is on the Drill Team with me! Ugh! Boys!

So right after Albert goes away C.J. shows up and gives Angela a VERY friendly hug and a kiss on the cheek. RIGHT IN FRONT OF RACHEL! Can you believe it? I know that Rachel was head over heels for the guy and he ditches her for Angela when she’s already dating Albert!? Jeez.

I know that Rachel didn’t let it get her down though. She joined the foreign exchange program’s club and I hear that she’s helping to acclimatize some guy who I hear was an underwear model in Japan. She’ll probably do OK for herself, she’s a Texan after all, but I can’t help to think that she won’t be able to get over that C.J. fiasco.

Annie Oakland keeps mostly to herself these days. I think she trades Pokemon cards or something. She’s so weird. She still shows up for Drill Team practice, though.

I heard that Astrid was thinking about joining the Drill Team, too, but if she doesn’t get to
practice she won’t be able to make the team this year and will have to wait until next year.

Anyway, that’s a basic breakdown of what happened in my circle. I’ll tell you more about what happened to me in my next entry. OH GOSH you wouldn’t believe it. I can’t wait until Felix comes back. It’s so booooring while he goes to visit his parents for the summer. FelixFelixFelixFelixFelix.

Marina Sealth