Let's review my previous
predictions to see how flawed a human being I am. I started re-reading the
eminently enjoyable Kushiel's Dart by Jacqueline Carey so, of course, a little
pain for pleasure seems fitting.
I’m mostly using WAR as
a proxy for value. I realize that the defensive numbers on Fangraphs are
suspect but, we gotta start somewhere, right? WAR takes offense and defense
into consideration and the positional adjustments are mitigated by the fact
that we are comparing by position group.
Let's get to it:
What I said:
Best Ca: Mike Zunino
This is actually a pretty good group. Zunino
has the defensive chops, power potential, and youth to put him over the top but
all five, even Chirinos (the oldest, worst hitting of the group) deserves their
chance to start.
Reality (min. 50 PA):
Vogt: 115 wRC+, .04 Def (Athletics)
Pfegley: 106 wRC+, 8.6 Def (Athletics)
Chirinos: 104 wRC+, 5.5 Def (Rangers)
Castro: 76 wRC+, 10.6 Def (Astros)
C. Perez: 82 wRC+, 7.0 Def (Angels)
Ianetta: 80 wRC+, 5.4 Def (Angels)
Conger: 107 wRC+, -1.6 Def (Astros)
Sucre: 15 wRC+, 6.3 Def (Mariners)
Zunino: 47 wRC+, 6.9 Def (Mariners)
Oh, oh my heavens. This
is...this is tragic. The only reason that Jesus Sucre has a lower WAR than Mike
Zunino is because he played so much less than Mike. I think I'm going
to be sick.
I did predict a pretty
good catching group all around and I think I hit that nail on the head.
Everything other than the Zunino bad times. But, wow, what a miss.
The Athletics put
together the best catching group and Vogt’s 2nd half swoon is not as it
appears; he got destroyed in July and then destroyed in August only to have a
remedial Sept/Oct.
Chirinos puts the
Rangers in good position.
Castro/Conger was a great
theory that worked in the real world. Science!
Perez and Ianetta put
together a solid effort for the Angels. They’ll miss Ianetta if’n he leaves for
greener pastures. Mariners, mayhaps?
Speaking of the
Mariners, let’s not speak about them on this topic anymore!
Grade: C (Got it
generally, missed…SO so much on the top spot)
What I said:
Best 1B: Albert Pujols
Despite his age and massive albatross of a contract, Pujols
proved last year that his down 2013 was a (relative) fluke. While he is no
longer the towering shadow of doom that he was in his MVP heyday, he still
ranks as the best of the bunch here.
Other thoughts: I’m not sold on Prince’s return to form; I’ll
believe it when I see it. Logan and Ike seem about equivalent. Jon Singleton
has scary potential…if he can cut down on the whiffs.
Reality (min. 50 PA):
Mitch Moreland
(Rangers) 2.1 WAR
Albert Pujols (Angels)
2.0 WAR
Prince Fielder (Rangers) 1.6 WAR
Marwin Gonzalez
(Astros) 1.5 WAR
Mark Canha (Athletics)
1.4 WAR
C.J. Cron (Angels) 0.5 WAR
Mark Trumbo (Mariners) 0.4 WAR
Chris Carter (Astros) 0.3 WAR
Efren Navarro (Angels)
0.1 WAR
Jon Singleton (Rangers) 0.1
WAR
Logan Morrison
(Mariners) -0.2 WAR
Adam Rosales (Rangers -0.2 WAR
Ike Davis (Athletics) -0.4 WAR
Max Muncy (Athletics) -0.5 WAR
Jesus Montero
(Mariners) -0.5 WAR
Albert Pujols good but not
a towering shadow of doom? Check.
Albert Pujols best of
the bunch? Not check (though, just barely)
Prince not returned to
form? Mmmmeh. Could go either way. 1) He hit well (124 wRC+) 2) He didn’t
really play 1B, mostly DH’d 3) He didn’t hit as well as he used to.
Logan and Ike being
about equivalent? Mmmmeh. Logan hit better but Ike was less of a disaster in
the field. Ultimately, that makes Logan more valuable but roughly equivalent?
Mmmmeh.
Singleton’s potential?
Spent most of 2015 acquitting himself well in AAA. Still strikes out a lot but made
progress in reducing Ks. Still just 24? I say check.
Grade: B
What I said:
Best 2B: Robinson Cano
He is the superstar straw that stirs the Mariner’s drink. He is
butter smooth in the field, can spray line drives in his sleep, and is a
positive ambassador both in and out of the clubhouse. He’s being paid a fortune
but, good God, he just might be worth every penny.
Other thoughts: Ben Zobrist was an inspired get for the A’s.
Wait…Altuve the elf is just 24? God, Astros, you and your young talent-base…
Reality (min. 50 PA):
Jose Altuve 4.3 WAR
Roughned Odor 2.3 WAR
Robinson Cano 2.1 WAR
Ben Zobrist 2.1 WAR
Johnny Giavotella 1.1
WAR
Brett Lawrie 0.6 WAR
Eric Sogard .04 WAR
Taylor Featherston 0.1 WAR
Adam Rosales -0.2 WAR
Willie Bloomquist -0.6 WAR
*Bonus* Nick Franklin -0.8 WAR
Altuve just about lapped
the field. And he’s still just 25. Jeez.
Cano had a weird
parasite and underperformed. The Mariners’ medical staff is currently a
jokeshow.
Zobrist: Good get.
Grade: B
What I said:
Best 3B: Adrian Beltre
I’m so happy that my brain and my heart agree here. Adrian is
one of my favorite players. There are no adequate adjectives to describe his
defense and he’s currently in the midst of hitting as well as he ever has in
his career. He may be getting up there in age but I see no decline for at least
a couple more years. And the world is better for it.
Other thoughts: Kyle Seager is in prime position this year to
take a step in the national perception from quality starter to star. His defense
at third has improved tremendously over the past couple of years and he’ll be
hitting behind the M’s big 3 & 4. Brett Lawrie is a top-flite budding
star…if he can stay healthy. Getting off of the Toronto turf may help with
that. Freese and Lowrie are solid veteran stop-gaps.
Reality (min. 50 PA):
Adrian Beltre 4.6 WAR
Kyle Seager 3.9 WAR
David Freese 2.2 WAR
Luis Valbuena 1.2 WAR
Jed Lowrie 1.0 WAR
Brett Lawrie 0.6 WAR
Joey Gallo 0.6 WAR
Jonathan Villar 0.2 WAR
Kaleb Cowart -0.1 WAR
Beltre: *glowing*
Seager: *nods* Yup.
Lawrie: *shakes head*
Nope. Stayed healthy. Didn’t do great. Stock: down.
Freese/Lowrie: *nods*
Yup.
Grade: B
What I said:
Best SS: No Comment
Yuck. Brad Miller hasn’t proven a darn thing with his bat but
has proven his ability to lapse defensively. He has potential but I can’t
believe it until I see it sustained. Elvis is also on the ‘prove-it’ train and
has doubled-down on his ticket. Poor TEX, Jurickson would’ve done wonders this
year. Erick Aybar…nah. Jed Lowrie…nah. I have no idea who Marcus Semien is but
a cursory glance has proven intriguing. ::Shakes fist:: AAAAAssss!
Reality (min. 50 PA):
Carlos Correa 3.3 WAR
Ketel Marte 1.7 WAR
Marcus Semien 1.7 WAR
Elvis Andrus 1.6 WAR
Jed Lowrie 1.0 WAR
Erick Aybar 1.0 WAR
Brad Miller 0.9 WAR
Jonathan Villar 0.2 WAR
Chris Taylor -0.4 WAR
Uh. 20 (now 21) year old
Carlos Correa just kicked down the door of AL West shortstops. Damn.
Brad Miller w/ potential
if he can be consistent? Check. Same issues still apply.
Elvis picked it in the
field with the best of ‘em but struggled at the plate.
Aybar: There are worse
things than 1.0 WAR at SS. I shouldn’t have been so dismissive!
Semien: NOW I know what
a Marcus Semien is. He was and is, indeed, intriguing.
Grade: B
No stand out except who
for Carlos Correa and who saw him being this good this early?
What I said:
Best LF: Evan Gattis
Evan is going to play LF, DH, and some Ca this year. He’s making
the transition from the Senior Circuit and that can prove troublesome at times
but he’s got power for days and is 28 with experience.
Other thoughts: The Ackley/Weeks platoon is intriguing. Are the
Angels really going to put Cowgill out there every day?
Reality (min. 50 PA):
Colby Rasmus 2.8
WAR
Franklin Gutierrez 2.3 WAR (WHAT!?)
Seth Smith 2.2
WAR
Colin Cowgill 0.4
WAR
Daniel Robertson 0.3 WAR
Josh Hamilton 0.2
WAR
Sam Fuld 0.1
WAR
Evan Gattis 0.0
WAR
Dustin Ackley -0.6
WAR
Rickie Weeks -0.7
WAR
Matt Joyce -1.4
WAR
Colby Rasmus takes the AL
West LF crown (he also played center and right, but the majority of his
appearances were in left). Evan Gattis’ positional WAR adjustment hurts him
here as he hit DH far, FAR, more than he played any other position. That said,
a 99 wRC+ is not what I was expecting.
BAW GAWD, KING, THAT’S
FRANKLIN GUTIERREZ’ MUSIC! Out of nowhere storms back Franklin. Combined with
Seth Smith they made a potent combo. That’s offset by the terrible, awful, no
good, very bad platoon the Mariners were running out at the beginning of the
year. Ackley/Weeks = intriguing? I suck.
The Angels did not put
Cowgill out there every day because he sucked offensively.
No call on Rasmus
Gutierrez, or Smith. Wrong call on Ackley/Weeks and Gattis.
Grade: F
What I said:
Best CF: Mike Trout
LULZ
Reality (min. 50 PA):
Mike Trout 9.0
WAR (LULZ)
Billy Burns 2.3
WAR
Austin Jackson 2.1 WAR
Jake Marisnick 1.8 WAR
Delina Deshields 1.3 WAR
Carlos Gomez 0.9
WAR
Leonys Martin 0.4
WAR
Trout.
Nothing else to write
home about
Grade: A
What I said:
Best RF: Kole Calhoun
String me up for putting Kole over Golden Boy Springer. Go
ahead. But you can’t discount the volatility associated with George. Kole has a
year’s worth of experience on him and has established himself as
better-than-solid. Talk to me again in two years when George is far and away
the best RF on this list but, for today, considering track-record and youth
relative to the league, give me Kole.
Other thoughts: The Ruggiano/Smith platoon intrigues. I loved
Shin-Soo as having the potential to live up to his most recent free-agent
contract. Underrated player, if that’s possible. Josh Reddick is able to return
from the DL on 04/11 and the A’s will be much better for it.
Reality (min. 50 PA):
Kole Calhoun 3.8 WAR
George Springer 3.7
WAR
Shin-Soo Choo 3.5
WAR
Josh Reddick 3.0
WAR
Mark Trumbo 0.4
WAR
Justin Ruggiano -0.1
WAR
Kole Calhoun
outperformed George Springer (just barely). I called it.
George Springer is also
good. I called it.
Ruggianno/Smith was
intriguing. Smith was good and Ruggiano, after being powerflushed in Seattle,
made quite a run for the Dodgers.
Trumbo’s only here
because he played RF for the Diamondbacks. He’s a 1B in Seattle.
Shin-Soo Choo: I called
it.
Josh Reddick: I called
it.
Grade: A
What I said:
Best DH: Nelson Cruz
This is pretty much a toss-up between Chris Carter and Nelson
Cruz. I was going to put Chris here because of the age gap but it’s going to be
a hot summer and I’m going to need him close by to generate a breeze. Joyce’s
ISO took a dip last year and his BABIP was at an all-time high. I’m not
terribly high on his prospects this year or down the road. Count me out on
Country Breakfast, a bad-body post-peak DH that was under replacement level
last year (please note that his nickname alone gets him 758 extra points on my
scale).
Reality (min. 50 PA):
Nelson Cruz 4.8 WAR
Prince Fielder 1.6 WAR
C.J. Cron 0.5 WAR
Chris Carter 0.3 WAR (<- 1B)
Evan Gattis 0.0 WAR
Billy Butler -0.7 WAR
Matt Joyce -1.4 WAR
Not a toss-up between
Cruz and Carter. Cruz still took the top spot, though. Just like I said.
Joyce didn’t look so
great to me. Check.
Out on Country
Breakfast: Check.
Grade: B
What I said:
Best SP: Felix Hernandez
Best SP: Sonny Gray
Best SP: Dallas Keuchel
Best SP: Hisashi Iwakuma
Best SP: Collin McHugh
Reality (min. 100 IP):
Dallas Keuchel 6.1 WAR
Collin McHugh 3.9 WAR
Sonny Gray 3.8 WAR
Felix Hernandez 2.8 WAR
Lance McCullers 2.8
WAR
Replace Iwakuma with
McCullers and I sweep (though, not in the order predicted).
Keuchel went CRAZY!
Felix had a down year,
his first year with a WAR under 3 since his debut season in 2005.
Astros have 3 of the top
five SP from last year at ages 27, 28, and 22. SMDH.
Grade: A
Conclusion:
Grades: C, B, B, B, B, F,
A, A, B, A
One critical failure,
three critical successes, five very good predictions, and one average one.
Hey, I’m okay at this!
