45-day OUCH clause...AmIRite?

The Mariners have the bottle held vertically and are chugging the dregs of Spring Training 2014. No Nick Franklin trade, a late Nick Franklin appearance in RF, Abe Almonte being shoehorned into the leadoff role, and Brad Miller and Dustin Ackley going absolutely bonkers at the plate. Fun times!

And then there's the pitching.

Felix...he's great. All hail.

Iwakuma...hurt finger ligament. He's just starting his spring training now and won't be ready for, like, a month.

Paxton...see my previous posts about him. Going to throw down. Just watch.

Erasmo...Now's his time to step into his own spotlight. He's gotten his feet and cute little cankles wet and he's held his own. He deserves his spot on this staff.

Walker...After a shoulder brusitis scare he's back to throwing minor-league games. He's also about a month or so away. (Crosses fingers)

That's not a bad starting 5. That's actually pretty good.

However, with two of the five hurt that leaves the the M's scratching for depth. The team knew that this might be coming, though, and thoughtfully planned for a veteran or two to hold down the fort until the better pitchers get...um...better.

Scott Baker was making a comeback bid and, while he wasn't necessarily good, he was serviceab..huh? They assigned him to AAA and, in the process, he asked for his release? Oh. Okay.

Well that's fine because Baker was being beat out anyway by Randy Wolf, ye olde junkballer. He pitched about as admirably as he could have and earned a spot on the team. What a relief becau...huh? They tried to renegotiate and in the process offended Randy Wolf to the point where he asked for his release? Oh. Hm.

Okay...

So that leaves us two spots for some combination of:
Roenis Elias, Brandon Maurer, Blake Beavan, Hector NoeICan'tEvenFinishTypingHisName

Roenis: Got as high as AA last year. My understanding is that he might be good but needs to refine his offspeed pitches and lock in his arm angle. Sounds like the minors would be the most ideal place for him as a professional at this point.

Brandon: My opinion is that he's destined for the bullpen. His mechanics get all loosey-goosey after the second and third times through the lineup.

Blake: Good stuff but can't seem to pitch worth a darn. Beavan gives me a sad face.

Hector: Good stuff but can't pitch worth a darn. There's a subtle distinction between him and Blake. Did you catch it?

NONE of those four should be anywhere close to your starting rotation depth.

Sooo...way to go Mariners. You had the superior options in the palm of your hand and you done f*cked it up in a way that only you could have. Even if it were they right financial and baseball decisions (which I would argue against), now that the 45-day Wolf thing has appeared on Deadspin it seems that it might have been worth it to have not made the decsions they did in order to avoid yet another public relations disaster.

2014 Mariners: We Have No Idea What We're Doing

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Paxton Makes The Heart Grow Fonder

You heard it here third. James Paxton is going to detonate the league this year and establish himself as the M's solid #2 from here on out. Might as well start discussion on buying out his free agent years now because he's only going to get more expensive on a rediculous scale from here on out.

What makes me believe this? Wehehelll I'm glad you asked.

• Paxton's a power pitcher.

This has multiple benefits. Firstly, power pitchers tend to dominate by striking out a lot of guys. If you're new here, this is a good thing. Secondly, power pitchers tend to have a relatively reduced injury risk. I'd link to the studies on this but I'm feeling lazy right now. Google it.

• Paxton's a lefty.

His fastball plays up because of this. He already throws it hard and the fact that he's a lefty increases his fastball's efficacy from a level of 'simply overwhelming' to the old Raphael Soriano 'Lovcraftian Nightmare' designation.

• Paxton's 25

He's forged his path through the perilous pitching prospect jungle of potential injury further reducing his injury risk (again relatively speaking).

• His Minor League track record is sparkling...and his Major League performance to date has backed it up.

His scouting report, his projections, and his track record are all in sync. All three check the Top Of Rotation indicators. He wasn't apart of 'The Big Three' for no reason.

The above combined with the idea that Iwakuma may have been pitching a little over his head last year and presents a higher injury risk communicates, to me, that Paxton will have solidified himself as this team's #2 before this August.

Book it. Take out a prop bet in Vegas (don't really, I am not liable if you do). Write it in Sharpie.


--So, what would that mean, exactly?--

Well, in terms of this year, quite a bit. A quantifiable bit. It answers precisely 12.5% of our questions.

In order for the year to break the Mariner's way and for them to have a shot at a pennant, eight  question marks have to fall on Seattle's side of the fence.

1. Will Ackley realize his hitting potential?
2. Will Smoak realize his hitting potential?
3. Will Morrison realize his hitting potential?
4. Will Hart's knees hold up?
5. Will Zunino hit bendy pitches?
6. Will Saunders realize his hitting potential?
7. Will Miller establish himself as an everyday player?
8. Will the rotation (behind Felix and Mr. Bear) hold up?
9. Will the bullpen's talent be wasted by improper managerial usage?

That's a lot of questions. But what Paxton's emergence will mean is that question 8, the question of whether the rotation behind Felix and Kuma will hold up, is answered. It means that, instead of fretting about three rotation slots, we're only fretting about two. Those two slots would be filled by some combination of Erasmo/Walker/Baker/Wolf/Maurer/Beavan. Young and veteran talent tossed into a competative couldron? I like my chances.

It's not a statement of "CHAMPIONSHIP" but it checks off one of the questions.

8 to go. Go M's.