Analyzing the Miley/Aro <-> Elias/Smith Trade

The Mariners are reported to have completed a trade:

Mariners receive:

• SP Wade Miley
• RP Jonathan Aro

Red Sox receive:

• SP Roenis Elias
• RP Carson Smith

Let's examine the constituent pieces then put it all together.

• Wade Miley

Drafted by Arizona in 2008. 29 year old lefty SP. Currently in the midst of a $19.25 mil. deal through 2017 (with a club option for 2018). ~200 innings at the big league level for the past four years running. xFIPs for those years: 3.75, 3.77, 3.50, 4.08. 

• Jonathan Aro

Amateur free agent from the Dominican Republic signed in 2011. 25 year old right-handed relief pitcher. Earned a deserved promotion from A to A+ in 2014. Earned a deserved promotion from AA to AAA in 2015. Tasted a cup of coffee in 2015. 

• Roenis Elias

Amateur free agent signee in 2011. 27 years old. Lefty SP. Summoned straight from AA to pitch ~ 160 innings in the majors in 2014. Started in AAA in 2015 and pitched about 60 innings before getting called back up to the bigs. Good stuff. Make-up reported to be not so great. Back-end starting pitcher with mid-rotation upside.

• Carson Smith

2011 draftee. 26 year old relief pitcher. Dominant. Dominated in AA. Dominated in AAA. Dominated in the Majors. Dominant stuff, great make-up. Was, legitimately, the best relief pitcher in the AL West.

Analysis:

Wade Miley > Roenis Elias

Carson Smith > Jonathan Aro

The bullpen of the Mariners is mostly in shambles and DiPoto used the only lynch-pin piece left there to evovle Squirtle (Elias) to Blastoise (Miley).

Yes, the Mariners needed improved starting pitching depth and they obtain that in this deal.

Yes, the Mariners downgrade their bullpen in order to do so.

Given the variability of relief pitchers and the need for improving their starting rotation, I understand the thinking behind this move, even support it.

That being said, emotionally, discarding the last piece of a bullpen that at one time included Mark Lowe, Carter Capps, Dominic Leone, Carson Smith, and Tom Wilhelmsen...this feels like a blow.

This move is a technically correct (the best kind of correct) move, but still makes me sad.

Errata: Jonathan Aro was diagnosed with Dengue Fever twice before he turned 20 years old. With the laughing stock that is the Mariner's medical staff being unable to diagnose anything from intestinal parasites to tuberculosis, this could spell disaster. HAZMAT suit giveaway night, anybody?

PTBNL

Leonis Martin and Anthony Bass were traded from the Texas Rangers to the Seattle Mariners on November 16th. In exchange, the Mariners sent the Rangers Tom Wilhelmsen, James Jones, and a PTBNL. That unnamed player is now named: Patrick Kivlehan.

That was...unexpected. This feels like a kick in the gut. Patrick Kivlehan is young and has power

Looking at it again, though, Patrick would never have likely cracked any of DiPoto's 25 man rosters. His BB:K ratio was ~.25 last year in AAA and was trending in the wrong direction.

Best of luck, brave Kivlehan. We hardly knew ye.

Making Sense of the DiPotization of the Mariners Thus Far (12/02/15)

With the trade of Mark Trumbo and C.J. Riefenhauser for Steve Clevenger and the signing of Norichika Aoki, the Mariners’ current-state is as follows:

	Vs. R	Career wRC+ vs R			Vs. L	Career wRC+ vs L
RF	Norichika Aoki	103		RF	Norichika Aoki	118
LF	Seth Smith	122		LF	Franklin Gutierrez	126
2B	Robinson Cano	135		2B	Robinson Cano	109
DH	Nelson Cruz	117		DH	Nelson Cruz	143
3B	Kyle Seager	124		3B	Kyle Seager	99
Ca	Chris Ianetta	92		1B	Jesus Montero	115
1B				Ca	Chris Ianetta	132
SS	Ketel Marte			SS	Ketel Marte
CF	Leonys Martin	89		CF	Leonys Martin	53
2Ca	Steve Clevenger			2Ca	Steve Clevenger
Utl	Chris Taylor			Utl
1B	Jesus Montero	77		COF	Seth Smith	62
LF	Franklin Guitierrez	79		Utl	Chris Taylor

Chris Taylor, Ketel Marte, and Steve Clevenger, do not have sufficient track record to use historical precedent as a projection for 2016. What we do have…appears to be an as-yet incomplete picture.

34 year old Nori Aoki makes an alright RF on a 1-year deal. Has historically played better in RF, where he’ll play this year, than CF or LF but Safeco’s RF isn’t like most other ballparks’ RF. His defense is a solid TBD but, in all likelihood, probably passible and likely an improvement on Cruz’ underrated RF defense.

The Smith/Gutierrez platoon looks pretty slick.

Cano, Cruz, and Seager at the heart of the order is pretty nice.

Ianetta really does lengthen the lineup quite nicely. Clevenger is a much needed backup and fills a huge hole. I like Sugar Jesus and all but Sucre was simply not up to snuff.

Marte’s a big unknown. Taylor as a stop-loss at SS isn’t really ideal because you don’t have a dependable projection for him (kinda the purpose of a stop-loss). Taylor as a UTL can be quite nice indeed.

With Morrison and Trumbo jettisoned, that leaves Montero as one half of a 1B platoon. There is no other player on the 25-man roster that can handle the other end of that platoon. Kivlehan hasn’t shown that much of a split in the minors and he doesn’t have the BB:K ratio that DiPoto is looking for. Sardinas? No. Taylor? Not likely? …Cano? dot dot dot

Vs. L CF – Leonys Martin looks set up to fail against lefthanders from the get-go. Considering he’s also coming off of a down year at the plate, DiPoto must have alternate plans in place in order to field a viable team. As such, because both Gutierrez and Aoki can play CF in a pinch, expect DiPoto to acquire any ol’ outfielder who can hit lefties. Diagramed:

Vs. L – Martin -> Bench, Guti -> CF, Faceless OF w/ good split vs. L -> LF

                                         Aoki -> CF, Cruz -> RF, Faceless OF w/ good split vs. L -> DH

Zobrist would be great. Ryan Raburn would work out okay. 

You want to really, shake things up, watch the Mariners spend dat RSN money on Jason Heyward or trade for Jose Bautista or something crazy.

Bottom line: DiPoto's FAR from done.