Nate's 2017 Offseason Plan

Other people smarter and more articulate than I have documented their thoughts on what the Seattle Mariners should do in the offseason. Here are my thoughts as to what they should do and why.

My offseason plan involves a fairly radical departure in how rosters are constructed and deployed. This isn’t what I think the Mariners will do, this is what I’d pursue if I were the GM. Many people would burn Safeco (or whatever it’s going to be named after next year) to the ground if I had my way so, you know, be prepared for that.

Firstly, and most radically, I’d alter the approach to pitching (how's that for hubris?). There’d be a 6-man rotation consisting of an A team and a B team. 3 A team starters and 3 B team starters. Each team would have its own 3-man bullpen. There’d be a Fireman available to bail anybody out if they get out of whack and a LOOGY because apparently a team can’t function without one. The LOOGY would transition to become a second Fireman once Rzepczynski is gone but, even with an even number of firemen to allocate roles to, neither would be associated with a given pitching team. The Fireman team would be its own team. Roles, in this configuration, are more clearly defined, depth better organized, and development better specialized.

Why the change in approach to pitching?

1.       6-man rotation

Starting pitchers are ridden hard. The game is more intense and specialized than it used to be. Relying on a “horse” to carry the burden of eating innings is a mis-allocation of resources. One would want to, ideally, protect one’s assets from potential injury as much as possible while still putting as much talent into use as possible. The benefit of protecting starting pitching from injury has reached the point of making it more valuable to do than riding a given starter as an innings-sponge.

Also, Otani is used to this, so, you know, that’s, like, a selling point to employ in your pitch to him.

2.       Bullpen teams

My understanding is that relief pitchers covet knowing their roles in a given bullpen. That they, generally, perform better in a defined role than being deployed as a pile of useful arms to be used at a moment’s notice. Also, Scott Servais isn’t very good at bullpen management. This approach simplifies things for him, simplifies and clarifies things for the pitchers, engenders friendly competition through the boredom of the grind, clarifies developmental paths, and may possibly be more effective toward winning games than the current prevailing configuration.

All that being said, here are the moves I’d make:

è Sign Shohei Otani

è Sign Yu Darvish

è Sign Brandon Morrow

è Sign Drew Smyly

è Sign Michael Pineda

è Sign Miles Mikolas

è Trade Dan Vogelbach, Kyle Lewis, Nick Neidert, Ben Gamel, and Guillermo Heredia to the Miami Marlins for Giancarlo Stanton

è Trade Dan Altavilla, Nick Vincent, Marco Gonzales, and Braden Bishop to the Miami Marlins for Marcell Ozuna

è Trade Andrew Moore to the Minnesota Twins for Zack Granite

Here is what the team would look like with Steamer projections for wRC+ and FIP. Shohei’s has been approximated based on best guesses.

Ca Mike Zunino           99

1B Ryon Healy             93

2B Robinson Cano       116

3B Kyle Seager            96

SS Jean Segura             116

LF Marcell Ozuna        124

CF Mitch Haniger        104

RF Giancarlo Stanton  150

DH Nelson Cruz           132

OF Shohei Otani          110

IF Andrew Romine      72

2Ca Mike Marjama      70

SP1A James Paxton     3.54

SP1B Yu Darvish         3.69

SP2A Shohei Otani      3.65

SP2B Felix Hernandez 4.32

SP3A Michael Pineda  3.65

SP3B Mike Leake        4.53

Bullpen

Team A: LR Ariel Miranda, MR David Phelps, CL Edwin Diaz

Team B: LR James Pazos, MR Nick Rumbelow, CL Brandon Morrow

LOOGY: Marc Rzepczynski

Fireman: Tony Zych

DL

Drew Smyly

Here’s the rationale:

è Sign Shohei Otani

As of the publishing of this piece, Seattle is one of seven teams left vying for the services of Otani-san. Otani is a 23-year-old ace pitcher and left-handed power hitter under cost control. He’s young, talented, and marketable. There’s literally no downside. He would even have minor-league options!

è Sign Yu Darvish

The Mariners need quality starting pitching. Yu Darvish is among the best starting pitchers available on the free agent market. Simple as that.

è Sign Brandon Morrow

Wade Davis had a qualifying offer so, of the free-agent relief pitchers available, I opted to bring Brandon Morrow back to the organization. The team needs quality relief pitching to add to the pile. This does that.

è Sign Drew Smyly

Smyly likely won’t pitch this year. He’ll likely pitch next year. Smyly is no sure thing but he’s a quality starting pitcher when healthy. I’m willing to gamble on him. This is a move for the future.

è Sign Michael Pineda

The Mariners need quality starting pitching (see, explanation; Darvish, Yu). Bring Pineda back to the org to provide that.

è Sign Miles Mikolas

The Mariners need quality starting pitching (see, explanation; Darvish, Yu/Pineda, Michael). Miles has found his pitching stroke over in the NPB and would likely be interested in giving the MLB another go. Add him to the competition with a legit shot at making it. Success means increased quality of starting pitching depth one way or the other and acts as a hedge against injury.

è Trade Dan Vogelbach, Kyle Lewis, Nick Neidert, Ben Gamel, and Guillermo Heredia to the Miami Marlins for Giancarlo Stanton

Hoo, boy. My relationship with the idea of bringing Giancarlo into the Mariners org is, shall we call it, unhealthy. He invariably comes up at every 4^th of July family gathering and I’m sure everyone is sick of hearing about it by now.

Would this package work? I think so. Maybe not. *shrug*

My ideal offseason would hinge around this move over any other including Otani.

è Trade Dan Altavilla, Nick Vincent, Marco Gonzales, and Braden Bishop to the Miami Marlins for Marcell Ozuna

Would this package work? I think so. Maybe not. *shrug*

I remember Ozuna being discussed as a trade possibility for the Mariners years ago and he’s only hit since. An outfield/DH rotation of Haniger, Ozuna, Stanton, Otani, and Cruz, well, that just sounds like the bee’s knees.

è Trade Andrew Moore to the Minnesota Twins for Zack Granite

Would this package work? I think so. *shrug*

Zack Granite is a hack ‘n slash burner who plays center. He’s blocked in Minnesota by Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and Max Kepler. Granite would transition nicely to the OF rotation once Cruz departs after this next year (or at the trade deadline). This is a move for the future.

Conclusion:

This team would have a potent offense, flexible outfield, really good pitching both starting and relief, and some (but there's never enough) depth. It’d be more expensive, sure, but it’d win games and it’s feasible (given the general structure of trade packages). Ideally, I’d like a better quality of IF and 2Ca in order to give Seager, Cano, and Zunino some time off. The grind is hard, especially for catchers. But I didn’t find anybody that fit. It’s something I’d keep my eye on during season. That and more quality relief pitchers. 

AL West Teams Ranked

Here is the conclusion of my exhaustive analysis of each team in the AL West. While I'm wrestling with formatting issues, I wanted to give you my conclusions. I'll show my work later. Lo!

1. Mariners
2. Astros
3. A's
4. Angels
5. Rangers

The Mariners are, by far, the DEEPEST team in this division. Deep starting pitching, deep bench depth, offensive production spread throughout the lineup, several superstars, several stars, several reliable vets, complementary platoons, and several youngsters with upside. Don’t think I’m making this pick because I’m a Mariners fan. Last year I picked the Astros to be an unlikely division winner and, behold! They almost were.

The Astros put forward the most impressive projections in the division with top-end talent in starting pitching, consistent quality in the bullpen, a top-o-the-line 2B, and budding stars in RF and SS. Shallow depth amongst starting pitching and on the bench may become a bugaboo over the course of the 2015 season. Also, beware the fickle nature of production from youth. The team has to hope that Springer and Correa continue to produce and hoping for production from youth can bite you in the ass, as this Mariners fan can tell you.

The Athletics present an above average offensive profile, decent bench depth, starting pitching with young, talented upside and depth, and a deep, DEEP bullpen full of crazy talent.

The Angels can try to ride Mike Trout to a pennant but it won’t be enough. The supporting cast is not in place. There’s talent on this team, just not enough. There’s this year’s Angel’s slogan. ANGELS BASEBALL! It’s not enough

The Rangers went and won the division last year but my projections indicate that they’re bound for the cellar this year. They have a deep bullpen and a heart of the order that includes Choo/Beltre/Fielder and an upcoming 2B looking to solidify his talent. Once Darvish is healthy the Hamels/Darvish 1-2 punch is amongst the best in the MLB. I just don’t see enough supporting talent on this team to predict any kind of pennant run.

Final Word

The AL West is going to be an oiled-up machete match this year. The Mariners, Astros, and A’s will trade blows like heavyweights while the Angels and Rangers have enough talent to slip in their kidney shots and rabbit punches throughout the year. It should be a great year for baseball. Go M’s.

Analyzing the Miley/Aro <-> Elias/Smith Trade

The Mariners are reported to have completed a trade:

Mariners receive:

• SP Wade Miley
• RP Jonathan Aro

Red Sox receive:

• SP Roenis Elias
• RP Carson Smith

Let's examine the constituent pieces then put it all together.

• Wade Miley

Drafted by Arizona in 2008. 29 year old lefty SP. Currently in the midst of a $19.25 mil. deal through 2017 (with a club option for 2018). ~200 innings at the big league level for the past four years running. xFIPs for those years: 3.75, 3.77, 3.50, 4.08. 

• Jonathan Aro

Amateur free agent from the Dominican Republic signed in 2011. 25 year old right-handed relief pitcher. Earned a deserved promotion from A to A+ in 2014. Earned a deserved promotion from AA to AAA in 2015. Tasted a cup of coffee in 2015. 

• Roenis Elias

Amateur free agent signee in 2011. 27 years old. Lefty SP. Summoned straight from AA to pitch ~ 160 innings in the majors in 2014. Started in AAA in 2015 and pitched about 60 innings before getting called back up to the bigs. Good stuff. Make-up reported to be not so great. Back-end starting pitcher with mid-rotation upside.

• Carson Smith

2011 draftee. 26 year old relief pitcher. Dominant. Dominated in AA. Dominated in AAA. Dominated in the Majors. Dominant stuff, great make-up. Was, legitimately, the best relief pitcher in the AL West.

Analysis:

Wade Miley > Roenis Elias

Carson Smith > Jonathan Aro

The bullpen of the Mariners is mostly in shambles and DiPoto used the only lynch-pin piece left there to evovle Squirtle (Elias) to Blastoise (Miley).

Yes, the Mariners needed improved starting pitching depth and they obtain that in this deal.

Yes, the Mariners downgrade their bullpen in order to do so.

Given the variability of relief pitchers and the need for improving their starting rotation, I understand the thinking behind this move, even support it.

That being said, emotionally, discarding the last piece of a bullpen that at one time included Mark Lowe, Carter Capps, Dominic Leone, Carson Smith, and Tom Wilhelmsen...this feels like a blow.

This move is a technically correct (the best kind of correct) move, but still makes me sad.

Errata: Jonathan Aro was diagnosed with Dengue Fever twice before he turned 20 years old. With the laughing stock that is the Mariner's medical staff being unable to diagnose anything from intestinal parasites to tuberculosis, this could spell disaster. HAZMAT suit giveaway night, anybody?

PTBNL

Leonis Martin and Anthony Bass were traded from the Texas Rangers to the Seattle Mariners on November 16th. In exchange, the Mariners sent the Rangers Tom Wilhelmsen, James Jones, and a PTBNL. That unnamed player is now named: Patrick Kivlehan.

That was...unexpected. This feels like a kick in the gut. Patrick Kivlehan is young and has power

Looking at it again, though, Patrick would never have likely cracked any of DiPoto's 25 man rosters. His BB:K ratio was ~.25 last year in AAA and was trending in the wrong direction.

Best of luck, brave Kivlehan. We hardly knew ye.

Making Sense of the DiPotization of the Mariners Thus Far (12/02/15)

With the trade of Mark Trumbo and C.J. Riefenhauser for Steve Clevenger and the signing of Norichika Aoki, the Mariners’ current-state is as follows:

	Vs. R	Career wRC+ vs R			Vs. L	Career wRC+ vs L
RF	Norichika Aoki	103		RF	Norichika Aoki	118
LF	Seth Smith	122		LF	Franklin Gutierrez	126
2B	Robinson Cano	135		2B	Robinson Cano	109
DH	Nelson Cruz	117		DH	Nelson Cruz	143
3B	Kyle Seager	124		3B	Kyle Seager	99
Ca	Chris Ianetta	92		1B	Jesus Montero	115
1B				Ca	Chris Ianetta	132
SS	Ketel Marte			SS	Ketel Marte
CF	Leonys Martin	89		CF	Leonys Martin	53
2Ca	Steve Clevenger			2Ca	Steve Clevenger
Utl	Chris Taylor			Utl
1B	Jesus Montero	77		COF	Seth Smith	62
LF	Franklin Guitierrez	79		Utl	Chris Taylor

Chris Taylor, Ketel Marte, and Steve Clevenger, do not have sufficient track record to use historical precedent as a projection for 2016. What we do have…appears to be an as-yet incomplete picture.

34 year old Nori Aoki makes an alright RF on a 1-year deal. Has historically played better in RF, where he’ll play this year, than CF or LF but Safeco’s RF isn’t like most other ballparks’ RF. His defense is a solid TBD but, in all likelihood, probably passible and likely an improvement on Cruz’ underrated RF defense.

The Smith/Gutierrez platoon looks pretty slick.

Cano, Cruz, and Seager at the heart of the order is pretty nice.

Ianetta really does lengthen the lineup quite nicely. Clevenger is a much needed backup and fills a huge hole. I like Sugar Jesus and all but Sucre was simply not up to snuff.

Marte’s a big unknown. Taylor as a stop-loss at SS isn’t really ideal because you don’t have a dependable projection for him (kinda the purpose of a stop-loss). Taylor as a UTL can be quite nice indeed.

With Morrison and Trumbo jettisoned, that leaves Montero as one half of a 1B platoon. There is no other player on the 25-man roster that can handle the other end of that platoon. Kivlehan hasn’t shown that much of a split in the minors and he doesn’t have the BB:K ratio that DiPoto is looking for. Sardinas? No. Taylor? Not likely? …Cano? dot dot dot

Vs. L CF – Leonys Martin looks set up to fail against lefthanders from the get-go. Considering he’s also coming off of a down year at the plate, DiPoto must have alternate plans in place in order to field a viable team. As such, because both Gutierrez and Aoki can play CF in a pinch, expect DiPoto to acquire any ol’ outfielder who can hit lefties. Diagramed:

Vs. L – Martin -> Bench, Guti -> CF, Faceless OF w/ good split vs. L -> LF

                                         Aoki -> CF, Cruz -> RF, Faceless OF w/ good split vs. L -> DH

Zobrist would be great. Ryan Raburn would work out okay. 

You want to really, shake things up, watch the Mariners spend dat RSN money on Jason Heyward or trade for Jose Bautista or something crazy.

Bottom line: DiPoto's FAR from done.

Accountability

Let's review my previous predictions to see how flawed a human being I am. I started re-reading the eminently enjoyable Kushiel's Dart by Jacqueline Carey so, of course, a little pain for pleasure seems fitting.

I’m mostly using WAR as a proxy for value. I realize that the defensive numbers on Fangraphs are suspect but, we gotta start somewhere, right? WAR takes offense and defense into consideration and the positional adjustments are mitigated by the fact that we are comparing by position group.

Let's get to it:

What I said:

Best Ca: Mike Zunino
This is actually a pretty good group. Zunino has the defensive chops, power potential, and youth to put him over the top but all five, even Chirinos (the oldest, worst hitting of the group) deserves their chance to start.

Reality (min. 50 PA):

Vogt: 115 wRC+, .04 Def       (Athletics)

Pfegley: 106 wRC+, 8.6 Def (Athletics)

Chirinos: 104 wRC+, 5.5 Def             (Rangers)

Castro: 76 wRC+, 10.6 Def    (Astros)

C. Perez: 82 wRC+, 7.0 Def  (Angels)

Ianetta: 80 wRC+, 5.4 Def      (Angels)

Conger: 107 wRC+, -1.6 Def (Astros)

Sucre: 15 wRC+, 6.3 Def       (Mariners)

Zunino: 47 wRC+, 6.9 Def      (Mariners)

Oh, oh my heavens. This is...this is tragic. The only reason that Jesus Sucre has a lower WAR than Mike Zunino is because he played so much less than Mike. I think I'm going to be sick.

I did predict a pretty good catching group all around and I think I hit that nail on the head. Everything other than the Zunino bad times. But, wow, what a miss.

The Athletics put together the best catching group and Vogt’s 2nd half swoon is not as it appears; he got destroyed in July and then destroyed in August only to have a remedial Sept/Oct.

Chirinos puts the Rangers in good position.

Castro/Conger was a great theory that worked in the real world. Science!

Perez and Ianetta put together a solid effort for the Angels. They’ll miss Ianetta if’n he leaves for greener pastures. Mariners, mayhaps?

Speaking of the Mariners, let’s not speak about them on this topic anymore!

Grade: C (Got it generally, missed…SO so much on the top spot)

What I said:

         

Best 1B: Albert Pujols

Despite his age and massive albatross of a contract, Pujols proved last year that his down 2013 was a (relative) fluke. While he is no longer the towering shadow of doom that he was in his MVP heyday, he still ranks as the best of the bunch here.

Other thoughts: I’m not sold on Prince’s return to form; I’ll believe it when I see it. Logan and Ike seem about equivalent. Jon Singleton has scary potential…if he can cut down on the whiffs.

Reality (min. 50 PA):

Mitch Moreland (Rangers)      2.1 WAR

Albert Pujols (Angels)             2.0 WAR

Prince Fielder  (Rangers)        1.6 WAR

Marwin Gonzalez (Astros)      1.5 WAR

Mark Canha (Athletics)           1.4 WAR

C.J. Cron (Angels)                  0.5 WAR

Mark Trumbo (Mariners)        0.4 WAR

Chris Carter (Astros)               0.3 WAR

Efren Navarro (Angels)          0.1 WAR

Jon Singleton  (Rangers)        0.1 WAR

Logan Morrison (Mariners)     -0.2 WAR

Adam Rosales (Rangers        -0.2 WAR

Ike Davis (Athletics)                -0.4 WAR

Max Muncy (Athletics)           -0.5 WAR

Jesus Montero (Mariners)      -0.5 WAR

Albert Pujols good but not a towering shadow of doom? Check.

Albert Pujols best of the bunch? Not check (though, just barely)

Prince not returned to form? Mmmmeh. Could go either way. 1) He hit well (124 wRC+) 2) He didn’t really play 1B, mostly DH’d 3) He didn’t hit as well as he used to.

Logan and Ike being about equivalent? Mmmmeh. Logan hit better but Ike was less of a disaster in the field. Ultimately, that makes Logan more valuable but roughly equivalent? Mmmmeh.

Singleton’s potential? Spent most of 2015 acquitting himself well in AAA. Still strikes out a lot but made progress in reducing Ks. Still just 24? I say check.

 Grade: B

What I said:

 Best 2B: Robinson Cano

He is the superstar straw that stirs the Mariner’s drink. He is butter smooth in the field, can spray line drives in his sleep, and is a positive ambassador both in and out of the clubhouse. He’s being paid a fortune but, good God, he just might be worth every penny.

Other thoughts: Ben Zobrist was an inspired get for the A’s. Wait…Altuve the elf is just 24? God, Astros, you and your young talent-base…

Reality (min. 50 PA):

Jose Altuve 4.3 WAR

Roughned Odor 2.3 WAR

Robinson Cano 2.1 WAR

Ben Zobrist 2.1 WAR

Johnny Giavotella 1.1 WAR

Brett Lawrie     0.6 WAR

Eric Sogard     .04 WAR

Taylor Featherston      0.1 WAR

Adam Rosales            -0.2 WAR

Willie Bloomquist         -0.6 WAR

*Bonus* Nick Franklin            -0.8 WAR

Altuve just about lapped the field. And he’s still just 25. Jeez.

Cano had a weird parasite and underperformed. The Mariners’ medical staff is currently a jokeshow.

Zobrist: Good get.

Grade: B

What I said:

         Best 3B: Adrian Beltre

I’m so happy that my brain and my heart agree here. Adrian is one of my favorite players. There are no adequate adjectives to describe his defense and he’s currently in the midst of hitting as well as he ever has in his career. He may be getting up there in age but I see no decline for at least a couple more years. And the world is better for it.

Other thoughts: Kyle Seager is in prime position this year to take a step in the national perception from quality starter to star. His defense at third has improved tremendously over the past couple of years and he’ll be hitting behind the M’s big 3 & 4. Brett Lawrie is a top-flite budding star…if he can stay healthy. Getting off of the Toronto turf may help with that. Freese and Lowrie are solid veteran stop-gaps.

Reality (min. 50 PA):

Adrian Beltre 4.6 WAR

Kyle Seager 3.9 WAR

David Freese 2.2 WAR

Luis Valbuena 1.2 WAR

Jed Lowrie      1.0 WAR

Brett Lawrie     0.6 WAR

Joey Gallo       0.6 WAR

Jonathan Villar            0.2 WAR

Kaleb Cowart  -0.1 WAR

Beltre: *glowing*

Seager: *nods* Yup.

Lawrie: *shakes head* Nope. Stayed healthy. Didn’t do great. Stock: down.

Freese/Lowrie: *nods* Yup.

Grade: B

What I said:

Best SS: No Comment

Yuck. Brad Miller hasn’t proven a darn thing with his bat but has proven his ability to lapse defensively. He has potential but I can’t believe it until I see it sustained. Elvis is also on the ‘prove-it’ train and has doubled-down on his ticket. Poor TEX, Jurickson would’ve done wonders this year. Erick Aybar…nah. Jed Lowrie…nah. I have no idea who Marcus Semien is but a cursory glance has proven intriguing. ::Shakes fist:: AAAAAssss!

Reality (min. 50 PA):

Carlos Correa 3.3 WAR

Ketel Marte     1.7 WAR

Marcus Semien          1.7 WAR

Elvis Andrus    1.6 WAR

Jed Lowrie      1.0 WAR

Erick Aybar     1.0 WAR

Brad Miller       0.9 WAR

Jonathan Villar            0.2 WAR

Chris Taylor    -0.4 WAR

Uh. 20 (now 21) year old Carlos Correa just kicked down the door of AL West shortstops. Damn.

Brad Miller w/ potential if he can be consistent? Check. Same issues still apply.

Elvis picked it in the field with the best of ‘em but struggled at the plate.

Aybar: There are worse things than 1.0 WAR at SS. I shouldn’t have been so dismissive!

Semien: NOW I know what a Marcus Semien is. He was and is, indeed, intriguing.

Grade: B

No stand out except who for Carlos Correa and who saw him being this good this early?

What I said:

Best LF: Evan Gattis

Evan is going to play LF, DH, and some Ca this year. He’s making the transition from the Senior Circuit and that can prove troublesome at times but he’s got power for days and is 28 with experience.

Other thoughts: The Ackley/Weeks platoon is intriguing. Are the Angels really going to put Cowgill out there every day?

Reality (min. 50 PA):

Colby Rasmus                        2.8 WAR

Franklin Gutierrez       2.3 WAR (WHAT!?)

Seth Smith                  2.2 WAR

Colin Cowgill               0.4 WAR

Daniel Robertson        0.3 WAR

Josh Hamilton             0.2 WAR

Sam Fuld                    0.1 WAR

Evan Gattis                 0.0 WAR

Dustin Ackley              -0.6 WAR

Rickie Weeks              -0.7 WAR

Matt Joyce                  -1.4 WAR

Colby Rasmus takes the AL West LF crown (he also played center and right, but the majority of his appearances were in left). Evan Gattis’ positional WAR adjustment hurts him here as he hit DH far, FAR, more than he played any other position. That said, a 99 wRC+ is not what I was expecting.

BAW GAWD, KING, THAT’S FRANKLIN GUTIERREZ’ MUSIC! Out of nowhere storms back Franklin. Combined with Seth Smith they made a potent combo. That’s offset by the terrible, awful, no good, very bad platoon the Mariners were running out at the beginning of the year. Ackley/Weeks = intriguing? I suck.

The Angels did not put Cowgill out there every day because he sucked offensively.

No call on Rasmus Gutierrez, or Smith. Wrong call on Ackley/Weeks and Gattis.

Grade: F

What I said:

Best CF: Mike Trout

LULZ

Reality (min. 50 PA):

Mike Trout                   9.0 WAR (LULZ)

Billy Burns                   2.3 WAR

Austin Jackson           2.1 WAR

Jake Marisnick           1.8 WAR

Delina Deshields         1.3 WAR

Carlos Gomez             0.9 WAR

Leonys Martin             0.4 WAR

Trout.

Nothing else to write home about

Grade: A

What I said:

Best RF: Kole Calhoun

String me up for putting Kole over Golden Boy Springer. Go ahead. But you can’t discount the volatility associated with George. Kole has a year’s worth of experience on him and has established himself as better-than-solid. Talk to me again in two years when George is far and away the best RF on this list but, for today, considering track-record and youth relative to the league, give me Kole.

Other thoughts: The Ruggiano/Smith platoon intrigues. I loved Shin-Soo as having the potential to live up to his most recent free-agent contract. Underrated player, if that’s possible. Josh Reddick is able to return from the DL on 04/11 and the A’s will be much better for it.

Reality (min. 50 PA):

Kole Calhoun              3.8 WAR

George Springer         3.7 WAR

Shin-Soo Choo           3.5 WAR

Josh Reddick              3.0 WAR

Mark Trumbo              0.4 WAR

Justin Ruggiano          -0.1 WAR

Kole Calhoun outperformed George Springer (just barely). I called it.

George Springer is also good. I called it.

Ruggianno/Smith was intriguing. Smith was good and Ruggiano, after being powerflushed in Seattle, made quite a run for the Dodgers.

Trumbo’s only here because he played RF for the Diamondbacks. He’s a 1B in Seattle.

Shin-Soo Choo: I called it.

Josh Reddick: I called it.

Grade: A

What I said:

Best DH: Nelson Cruz

This is pretty much a toss-up between Chris Carter and Nelson Cruz. I was going to put Chris here because of the age gap but it’s going to be a hot summer and I’m going to need him close by to generate a breeze. Joyce’s ISO took a dip last year and his BABIP was at an all-time high. I’m not terribly high on his prospects this year or down the road. Count me out on Country Breakfast, a bad-body post-peak DH that was under replacement level last year (please note that his nickname alone gets him 758 extra points on my scale).

Reality (min. 50 PA):

Nelson Cruz    4.8 WAR

Prince Fielder  1.6 WAR

C.J. Cron        0.5 WAR

Chris Carter    0.3 WAR (<- 1B)

Evan Gattis     0.0 WAR

Billy Butler       -0.7 WAR

Matt Joyce      -1.4 WAR

Not a toss-up between Cruz and Carter. Cruz still took the top spot, though. Just like I said.

Joyce didn’t look so great to me. Check.

Out on Country Breakfast: Check.

Grade: B

What I said:

Best SP: Felix Hernandez

Best SP: Sonny Gray

Best SP: Dallas Keuchel

Best SP: Hisashi Iwakuma

Best SP: Collin McHugh

Reality (min. 100 IP):

Dallas Keuchel                   6.1 WAR

Collin McHugh                   3.9 WAR

Sonny Gray                         3.8 WAR

Felix Hernandez                               2.8 WAR

Lance McCullers               2.8 WAR

Replace Iwakuma with McCullers and I sweep (though, not in the order predicted).

Keuchel went CRAZY!

Felix had a down year, his first year with a WAR under 3 since his debut season in 2005.

Astros have 3 of the top five SP from last year at ages 27, 28, and 22. SMDH.

Grade: A

Conclusion:

Grades: C, B, B, B, B, F, A, A, B, A

One critical failure, three critical successes, five very good predictions, and one average one.

Hey, I’m okay at this!