Friday, February 3, 2012

The Logjams (Not An Indie Band)

With the Los Angeles Yankees of Anaheim and the Texas Red Sox vying for dominance in the 2012 AL West, the Mariners' playoff hopes start the year at a distinct disadvantage. Now, I'm not one to blithely declare a season over before it begins but it's worth looking to the team's future to determine if there may be any hope on the horizon. Sometimes hope is all we have.

With that, taking a look at this year's spring training battles and the projected AAA roster, we see some possible roster issues beginning to take shape. Let's dive in.

Spring Training Battles:
3B C. Guillen/C. Figgins/K. Seager/A. Liddi
LF M. Carp/ C. Wells/ M. Saunders
CA J. Montero/ M. Olivo/ J. Jaso/ A. Moore/ C. Gimenez
Util L. Rodriguez/ M. Kawasaki

As you can see, with the bench roles available this will be a battle of 14 players for 7 roster spots. Considering how this is likely to shake out (explanation below) the AAA roster will likely appear as follows:

Rainiers:
CA A. Moore/J. Jaso/C. Gimenez
1B ?? (likely M. Mangini)
2B K. Seager
3B A. Liddi
SS N. Franklin
LF V. Catricala
CF T. Robinson
RF C. Peguero
DH M. Wilson

Bench:
L. Rodriguez or M. Kawasaki
One or two of the three Catchers
L. Jimenez

An explanation is in order as to how this AAA roster was constructed. Follow along.

CA: M. Olivo and J. Montero will likely job share. Eric Wedge MIGHT shoehorn a third catcher onto the 25-man in Jaso or Gimenez but that's unlikely and leaves three players to fight it out in AAA.

1B: Nobody. Poythress is likely to repeat AA and signs point to the team developing Catricala in the outfield in order to get his bat to the bigs as quickly as possible. Mangini has manned 3B and DH the past couple of years in AAA and fared...kinda OK...but with the 3B/DH logjam and his stagnating development he will likely be relegated to filling an organization need as opposed to being developed as a legit major-league prospect.

2B: Geoff Baker laid out a great argument as to why Kyle Seager is not as likely to break camp on the big league roster as some people may think. He's miscast as a third baseman and is a natural fit at second. For his own sake and to increase his trade value, the M's will likely develop him here.

3B: Alex Liddi has been featured in the Future's Game and got his first cup of coffee last year. He's the incumbent at this position and there's no reason to move him off, sub-par defense be damned. With Francisco Martinez behind him in AA there's no reason for the M's to stick any organizational filler here like Luis Rodriguez and they should and will focus on developing the talent at hand.

SS: Nick Franklin had Job's lotto ticket last year and consequently had his year cut short. He still flashed better tools than Carlos Triunfel despite being a year younger. He should get the nod over Triunfel at Cheney which would allow Carlos a consolidation year in AA.

LF: If Michael Saunders doesn't make the cut as the fourth outfielder out of Spring Training and ends up clearing waivers, he can conceivably end up here. He's out of options so it's a make or break spring for him. Mike Wilson could also slot here or at DH. He re-signed with the club despite being a minor-league free agent. Considering that he must have known that he'd be unlikely to get another shot at the bigs on this club and re-signed anyway it's probably safe to assume that he's not going anywhere. Vinnie Catricala mentioned several times at FanFest that the organization will try him in the outfield in order to hasten the arrival of his offense to the bigs, despite his preference for third base.

CF: This position is Trayvon Robinson's to lose.

RF: Carlos Peguero has this position locked down.

DH: This will be a rotation of Luis Jimenez, Mike Wilson, and Chris Gimenez (to keep him relatively fresh).

With all the prospects and organizational depth (filler) in AAA any AA prospect who's looking for a mid-season promotion is gonna have to knock Chris Gwynn's socks off. The Mariner's depth is much stronger this year and it's gonna take a lot of furrowed brows in the Safeco Field offices to make it work.

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