Now With More Blog!

Those swell guys over at Seattle Sports Central are letting me put my thoughts on them, not unlike a Mariner blogging tea-bagging. Please go have yourself a look-see.

The Logjams (Not An Indie Band)

With the Los Angeles Yankees of Anaheim and the Texas Red Sox vying for dominance in the 2012 AL West, the Mariners' playoff hopes start the year at a distinct disadvantage. Now, I'm not one to blithely declare a season over before it begins but it's worth looking to the team's future to determine if there may be any hope on the horizon. Sometimes hope is all we have.

With that, taking a look at this year's spring training battles and the projected AAA roster, we see some possible roster issues beginning to take shape. Let's dive in.

Spring Training Battles:

3B C. Guillen/C. Figgins/K. Seager/A. Liddi

LF M. Carp/ C. Wells/ M. Saunders

CA J. Montero/ M. Olivo/ J. Jaso/ A. Moore/ C. Gimenez

Util L. Rodriguez/ M. Kawasaki

As you can see, with the bench roles available this will be a battle of 14 players for 7 roster spots. Considering how this is likely to shake out (explanation below) the AAA roster will likely appear as follows:

Rainiers:

CA A. Moore/J. Jaso/C. Gimenez

1B ?? (likely M. Mangini)

2B K. Seager

3B A. Liddi

SS N. Franklin

LF V. Catricala

CF T. Robinson

RF C. Peguero

DH M. Wilson

Bench:

L. Rodriguez or M. Kawasaki

One or two of the three Catchers

L. Jimenez

An explanation is in order as to how this AAA roster was constructed. Follow along.

CA: M. Olivo and J. Montero will likely job share. Eric Wedge MIGHT shoehorn a third catcher onto the 25-man in Jaso or Gimenez but that's unlikely and leaves three players to fight it out in AAA.

1B: Nobody. Poythress is likely to repeat AA and signs point to the team developing Catricala in the outfield in order to get his bat to the bigs as quickly as possible. Mangini has manned 3B and DH the past couple of years in AAA and fared...kinda OK...but with the 3B/DH logjam and his stagnating development he will likely be relegated to filling an organization need as opposed to being developed as a legit major-league prospect.

2B: Geoff Baker laid out a great argument as to why Kyle Seager is not as likely to break camp on the big league roster as some people may think. He's miscast as a third baseman and is a natural fit at second. For his own sake and to increase his trade value, the M's will likely develop him here.

3B: Alex Liddi has been featured in the Future's Game and got his first cup of coffee last year. He's the incumbent at this position and there's no reason to move him off, sub-par defense be damned. With Francisco Martinez behind him in AA there's no reason for the M's to stick any organizational filler here like Luis Rodriguez and they should and will focus on developing the talent at hand.

SS: Nick Franklin had Job's lotto ticket last year and consequently had his year cut short. He still flashed better tools than Carlos Triunfel despite being a year younger. He should get the nod over Triunfel at Cheney which would allow Carlos a consolidation year in AA.

LF: If Michael Saunders doesn't make the cut as the fourth outfielder out of Spring Training and ends up clearing waivers, he can conceivably end up here. He's out of options so it's a make or break spring for him. Mike Wilson could also slot here or at DH. He re-signed with the club despite being a minor-league free agent. Considering that he must have known that he'd be unlikely to get another shot at the bigs on this club and re-signed anyway it's probably safe to assume that he's not going anywhere. Vinnie Catricala mentioned several times at FanFest that the organization will try him in the outfield in order to hasten the arrival of his offense to the bigs, despite his preference for third base.

CF: This position is Trayvon Robinson's to lose.

RF: Carlos Peguero has this position locked down.

DH: This will be a rotation of Luis Jimenez, Mike Wilson, and Chris Gimenez (to keep him relatively fresh).

With all the prospects and organizational depth (filler) in AAA any AA prospect who's looking for a mid-season promotion is gonna have to knock Chris Gwynn's socks off. The Mariner's depth is much stronger this year and it's gonna take a lot of furrowed brows in the Safeco Field offices to make it work.

Payroll For Some Reason

So a lot of people seem to be really interested in the Mariner's payroll. I can't imagine their reasoning. Any budgetary "limits" are certainly arbitrary and no reasonable projection can be made from this. Also; the Mariners, like all MLB teams, are notorious for keeping their budget secret. Nonetheless, I live to serve. Here is my understanding of the Mariner's 2012 budget. Figures are based of off Cot's Contracts.

Note: There's some wiggle room in these figures depending on how you choose to figure incentives and Ichiro's deferment. These numbers do not include front office, scouting, or managerial salaries. It also does not reflect the draft budget, signing bonuses, baseball academy maintenance, affiliate fees (if applicable), stadium expenditures, travel expenses, equipment, consultant fees, or the salary of any player not on the 40-man roster (you begin to see why I feel this is a waste of time). It also doesn't include Carlos Guillen's (likely) $1.5 mil.

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K
1
2			MLS thru '11 season		salary + p-r bonus
3			Pos'n	ML Srv		2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
4	1	Ichiro Suzuki	RF	11	5 yr/$90M (08-12)	$18,000,000	FA
5	2	Felix Hernandez	RHP-S	6.06	5 yr/$78M (10-14)	$19,200,000	$20.20	$20.70
6	3	Chone Figgins	3B	8.145	4 yr/$36M (10-13)+14 opt	$9,500,000	$8.50	opt
7	4	Franklin Gutierrez	CF	5.08	4 yr/$20.25M (10-13)+14 cl opt	$5,813,000	$7.31	$0.50
8	5	Miguel Olivo	C	8.171	2 yr/$7M (11-12)+13 cl opt	$3,750,000	$0.75
9	6	Jason Vargas	LHP-S	4.114	1 yr/$2.45M (11)	$4,850,000	Arb 3	FA
10	7	Brandon League	RHP	5.145	1 yr/$2.25M (11)	$5,000,000	FA
11	8	Dustin Ackley	2B	0.105	5 yr/$7.5M (09-13)	$1,500,000	$1.50
12	9	Brendan Ryan	SS	4.082	2 yr/$2.75M (11-12)	$1,750,000	Arb 3	FA
13	10	Hisashi Iwakuma	RHP-S	0	1 yr/$1.5M (12)	$1,500,000	FA
14	11	George Sherrill	LHP	6.147	1 yr/$1.1M (12)	$1,100,000	FA
15	12	Cesar Jimenez	LHP	2.07		$420,000	Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
16	13	John Jaso	C	2.032	1 yr/$0.4272M (11)	$420,000	Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
17	14	Shawn Kelley	RHP	2.16	1 yr/$0.42M (11)	$420,000	Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
18	15	Chris Gimenez	C	2.041	1 yr (12)	$420,000	Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
19	16	Michael Saunders	OF	1.138	1 yr/$0.42M (11)	$420,000		Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
20	17	Justin Smoak	1B	1.116	1 yr/$0.419M (11)	$420,000		Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
21	18	Casper Wells	OF	1.05	1 yr/$0.418M (11)	$420,000		Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
22	19	Adam Moore	C	1.167	1 yr/$0.4175M (11)	$420,000	Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	Arb 4	FA
23	20	Mauricio Robles	LHP	0.075	1 yr/$0.414M (11)	$420,000
24	21	Tom Wilhelmsen	RHP	0.106	1 yr/$0.414M (11)	$420,000
25	22	Blake Beavan	RHP	0.088		$420,000
26	23	Mike Carp	1B	1.01		$420,000		Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
27	24	Johermyn Chavez	OF	0		$420,000
28	25	Steve Delabar	RHP	0.023		$420,000
29	26	Charlie Furbush	LHP	0.121		$420,000
30	27	Danny Hultzen	LHP-S
31	28	Alex Liddi	3B	0.023		$420,000
32	29	Lucas Leutge	LHP	0		$420,000
33	30	Yoervis Medina	RHP	0		$420,000
34	31	Jesus Montero	C	0.028		$420,000
35	32	Hector Noesi	RHP	0.139		$420,000
36	33	Carlos Peguero	OF	0.076		$420,000
37	34	Trayvon Robinson	OF	0.055		$420,000
38	35	Chance Ruffin	RHP	0.066		$420,000
39	36	Kyle Seager	2B/3B	0.085		$420,000
40	37	Fransisco Martinez	3B	0		$420,000
41	38	Carlos Triunfel	IF	0		$420,000
42	39	Chih-Hsien Chiang	OF	0		$420,000
43	40	Mike Wilson	OF	0.03		$420,000
44	.	TOTAL				$83,723,000

Allowing for wiggle-room and the above caveats, the Mariner's 40-man roster expenditure is, roughly, $84 million. This is about a $10 mil. dollar decrease from last year. Make of this what you will.