"With Leverage and the Proper Application of Strength..."

The Mariner’s record currently sits at (32-31). Their Pythagorean has them at (31-32) with 230 runs scored and 231 runs allowed. Those of you who have watched this team, though, know that such an even distribution belies this season’s roller-coaster. The team started the 2011 season with a stumble, a tumble, and a faceplant right in the mud with an (8-15)* record by 04/24** with a run differential of (78-112=) -34. To illustrate how bad that is, a run differential of -34 over 23 games translates to -238 runs over a 162 game season which is the equivalent of a (55-107) Pythagorean record, or, a .340 winning percentage. Bad.
*As an aside, (8-15) is a .348 winning percentage. Wow, chalk one up for Pythagorean!
**I know, I know, arbitrary sample sizes. Point taken. I feel that my argument stands regardless.

Since then the Mariners have gone (24-16) for a .600* winning percentage. Their run differential over that span has been (152-119=) +33, which expands to +132 over an entire season for an equivalent Pythagorean of (99-63), or, .611 winning percentage.
*That’s two for Pythagorean.

.340 vs. .611
Two completely different teams, neither alike in dignity in fair Seattle where we lay our scene.

So, what has been the difference? Starting pitching, of course. Also; the bull-pen has been nails with only the occasional hiccup. But with an offense as woeful as this one, how has this turn-around occurred? And is it likely to reverse itself?

Let me throw some splits at your ass. The Mariners are hitting:
Low Leverage .211/.291/.317 .248 BAbip
Medium Leverage .220/.284/.320 .259 BAbip
High Leverage .275/.345/.401 .329 BAbip
Total .228/.300/.336 .270 BAbip
League Average .253/.321/.396 .287 BAbip

The Mariners are a much better hitting club this year in high leverage situations. Their BAbip is also .042 points higher in these situations than the league average. It says here that the Mariners have gotten incredibly lucky when it mattered the most. Now, there are, of course, unquantifiable intangibles associated with “coming through when it counts,” “never giving up,” and “being scrappy.” Look, I’m not so naïve as to think that SABRmetrics is the be all end all in assessing a team. Of course you have to put yourself in a position to take advantage of luck when it goes your way.

But we all know that Lady Luck, she is a fickle mistress, prone to wild swings at unexpected times. By definition, you can’t control her.

Look. This isn’t gloom and doom. The Mariners are 2.5 games out of first place on 06/10/11. That’s worthy of celebration. What this is is a wake-up call. Their winning percentage of late with their offense as it currently stands is unsustainable. Things need to change. Without change, I see no way that they overtake Texas.

Calling up Carp was a good start. Calling up Ackley will be better. Obtaining a long-term answer at left field and third base is a dire priority.

Competing in 2011 might be feasible without sacrificing the future. This team’s pitching has been epic and can be ridden to win after win but only if something is done to address this offense. Are they willing to do what’s necessary to compete this year? We’ll have a very good answer to that on August 1st one way or another.