Nate's 2017 Offseason Plan

Other people smarter and more articulate than I have documented their thoughts on what the Seattle Mariners should do in the offseason. Here are my thoughts as to what they should do and why.

My offseason plan involves a fairly radical departure in how rosters are constructed and deployed. This isn’t what I think the Mariners will do, this is what I’d pursue if I were the GM. Many people would burn Safeco (or whatever it’s going to be named after next year) to the ground if I had my way so, you know, be prepared for that.

Firstly, and most radically, I’d alter the approach to pitching (how's that for hubris?). There’d be a 6-man rotation consisting of an A team and a B team. 3 A team starters and 3 B team starters. Each team would have its own 3-man bullpen. There’d be a Fireman available to bail anybody out if they get out of whack and a LOOGY because apparently a team can’t function without one. The LOOGY would transition to become a second Fireman once Rzepczynski is gone but, even with an even number of firemen to allocate roles to, neither would be associated with a given pitching team. The Fireman team would be its own team. Roles, in this configuration, are more clearly defined, depth better organized, and development better specialized.

Why the change in approach to pitching?

1.       6-man rotation

Starting pitchers are ridden hard. The game is more intense and specialized than it used to be. Relying on a “horse” to carry the burden of eating innings is a mis-allocation of resources. One would want to, ideally, protect one’s assets from potential injury as much as possible while still putting as much talent into use as possible. The benefit of protecting starting pitching from injury has reached the point of making it more valuable to do than riding a given starter as an innings-sponge.

Also, Otani is used to this, so, you know, that’s, like, a selling point to employ in your pitch to him.

2.       Bullpen teams

My understanding is that relief pitchers covet knowing their roles in a given bullpen. That they, generally, perform better in a defined role than being deployed as a pile of useful arms to be used at a moment’s notice. Also, Scott Servais isn’t very good at bullpen management. This approach simplifies things for him, simplifies and clarifies things for the pitchers, engenders friendly competition through the boredom of the grind, clarifies developmental paths, and may possibly be more effective toward winning games than the current prevailing configuration.

All that being said, here are the moves I’d make:

è Sign Shohei Otani

è Sign Yu Darvish

è Sign Brandon Morrow

è Sign Drew Smyly

è Sign Michael Pineda

è Sign Miles Mikolas

è Trade Dan Vogelbach, Kyle Lewis, Nick Neidert, Ben Gamel, and Guillermo Heredia to the Miami Marlins for Giancarlo Stanton

è Trade Dan Altavilla, Nick Vincent, Marco Gonzales, and Braden Bishop to the Miami Marlins for Marcell Ozuna

è Trade Andrew Moore to the Minnesota Twins for Zack Granite

Here is what the team would look like with Steamer projections for wRC+ and FIP. Shohei’s has been approximated based on best guesses.

Ca Mike Zunino           99

1B Ryon Healy             93

2B Robinson Cano       116

3B Kyle Seager            96

SS Jean Segura             116

LF Marcell Ozuna        124

CF Mitch Haniger        104

RF Giancarlo Stanton  150

DH Nelson Cruz           132

OF Shohei Otani          110

IF Andrew Romine      72

2Ca Mike Marjama      70

SP1A James Paxton     3.54

SP1B Yu Darvish         3.69

SP2A Shohei Otani      3.65

SP2B Felix Hernandez 4.32

SP3A Michael Pineda  3.65

SP3B Mike Leake        4.53

Bullpen

Team A: LR Ariel Miranda, MR David Phelps, CL Edwin Diaz

Team B: LR James Pazos, MR Nick Rumbelow, CL Brandon Morrow

LOOGY: Marc Rzepczynski

Fireman: Tony Zych

DL

Drew Smyly

Here’s the rationale:

è Sign Shohei Otani

As of the publishing of this piece, Seattle is one of seven teams left vying for the services of Otani-san. Otani is a 23-year-old ace pitcher and left-handed power hitter under cost control. He’s young, talented, and marketable. There’s literally no downside. He would even have minor-league options!

è Sign Yu Darvish

The Mariners need quality starting pitching. Yu Darvish is among the best starting pitchers available on the free agent market. Simple as that.

è Sign Brandon Morrow

Wade Davis had a qualifying offer so, of the free-agent relief pitchers available, I opted to bring Brandon Morrow back to the organization. The team needs quality relief pitching to add to the pile. This does that.

è Sign Drew Smyly

Smyly likely won’t pitch this year. He’ll likely pitch next year. Smyly is no sure thing but he’s a quality starting pitcher when healthy. I’m willing to gamble on him. This is a move for the future.

è Sign Michael Pineda

The Mariners need quality starting pitching (see, explanation; Darvish, Yu). Bring Pineda back to the org to provide that.

è Sign Miles Mikolas

The Mariners need quality starting pitching (see, explanation; Darvish, Yu/Pineda, Michael). Miles has found his pitching stroke over in the NPB and would likely be interested in giving the MLB another go. Add him to the competition with a legit shot at making it. Success means increased quality of starting pitching depth one way or the other and acts as a hedge against injury.

è Trade Dan Vogelbach, Kyle Lewis, Nick Neidert, Ben Gamel, and Guillermo Heredia to the Miami Marlins for Giancarlo Stanton

Hoo, boy. My relationship with the idea of bringing Giancarlo into the Mariners org is, shall we call it, unhealthy. He invariably comes up at every 4^th of July family gathering and I’m sure everyone is sick of hearing about it by now.

Would this package work? I think so. Maybe not. *shrug*

My ideal offseason would hinge around this move over any other including Otani.

è Trade Dan Altavilla, Nick Vincent, Marco Gonzales, and Braden Bishop to the Miami Marlins for Marcell Ozuna

Would this package work? I think so. Maybe not. *shrug*

I remember Ozuna being discussed as a trade possibility for the Mariners years ago and he’s only hit since. An outfield/DH rotation of Haniger, Ozuna, Stanton, Otani, and Cruz, well, that just sounds like the bee’s knees.

è Trade Andrew Moore to the Minnesota Twins for Zack Granite

Would this package work? I think so. *shrug*

Zack Granite is a hack ‘n slash burner who plays center. He’s blocked in Minnesota by Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and Max Kepler. Granite would transition nicely to the OF rotation once Cruz departs after this next year (or at the trade deadline). This is a move for the future.

Conclusion:

This team would have a potent offense, flexible outfield, really good pitching both starting and relief, and some (but there's never enough) depth. It’d be more expensive, sure, but it’d win games and it’s feasible (given the general structure of trade packages). Ideally, I’d like a better quality of IF and 2Ca in order to give Seager, Cano, and Zunino some time off. The grind is hard, especially for catchers. But I didn’t find anybody that fit. It’s something I’d keep my eye on during season. That and more quality relief pitchers.