Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Making Sense of the DiPotization of the Mariners Thus Far (12/02/15)

With the trade of Mark Trumbo and C.J. Riefenhauser for Steve Clevenger and the signing of Norichika Aoki, the Mariners’ current-state is as follows:


Vs. R
Career wRC+ vs R


Vs. L
Career wRC+ vs L
RF
Norichika Aoki
103

RF
Norichika Aoki
118
LF
Seth Smith
122

LF
Franklin Gutierrez
126
2B
Robinson Cano
135

2B
Robinson Cano
109
DH
Nelson Cruz
117

DH
Nelson Cruz
143
3B
Kyle Seager
124

3B
Kyle Seager
99
Ca
Chris Ianetta
92

1B
Jesus Montero
115
1B



Ca
Chris Ianetta
132
SS
Ketel Marte


SS
Ketel Marte

CF
Leonys Martin
89

CF
Leonys Martin
53







2Ca
Steve Clevenger


2Ca
Steve Clevenger

Utl
Chris Taylor


Utl


1B
Jesus Montero
77

COF
Seth Smith
62
LF
Franklin Guitierrez
79

Utl
Chris Taylor



Chris Taylor, Ketel Marte, and Steve Clevenger, do not have sufficient track record to use historical precedent as a projection for 2016. What we do have…appears to be an as-yet incomplete picture.

34 year old Nori Aoki makes an alright RF on a 1-year deal. Has historically played better in RF, where he’ll play this year, than CF or LF but Safeco’s RF isn’t like most other ballparks’ RF. His defense is a solid TBD but, in all likelihood, probably passible and likely an improvement on Cruz’ underrated RF defense.

The Smith/Gutierrez platoon looks pretty slick.

Cano, Cruz, and Seager at the heart of the order is pretty nice.

Ianetta really does lengthen the lineup quite nicely. Clevenger is a much needed backup and fills a huge hole. I like Sugar Jesus and all but Sucre was simply not up to snuff.

Marte’s a big unknown. Taylor as a stop-loss at SS isn’t really ideal because you don’t have a dependable projection for him (kinda the purpose of a stop-loss). Taylor as a UTL can be quite nice indeed.

With Morrison and Trumbo jettisoned, that leaves Montero as one half of a 1B platoon. There is no other player on the 25-man roster that can handle the other end of that platoon. Kivlehan hasn’t shown that much of a split in the minors and he doesn’t have the BB:K ratio that DiPoto is looking for. Sardinas? No. Taylor? Not likely? …Cano? dot dot dot

Vs. L CF – Leonys Martin looks set up to fail against lefthanders from the get-go. Considering he’s also coming off of a down year at the plate, DiPoto must have alternate plans in place in order to field a viable team. As such, because both Gutierrez and Aoki can play CF in a pinch, expect DiPoto to acquire any ol’ outfielder who can hit lefties. Diagramed:

Vs. L – Martin -> Bench, Guti -> CF, Faceless OF w/ good split vs. L -> LF
                                         Aoki -> CF, Cruz -> RF, Faceless OF w/ good split vs. L -> DH

Zobrist would be great. Ryan Raburn would work out okay. 
You want to really, shake things up, watch the Mariners spend dat RSN money on Jason Heyward or trade for Jose Bautista or something crazy.

Bottom line: DiPoto's FAR from done.

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