Accountability

Let's review my previous predictions to see how flawed a human being I am. I started re-reading the eminently enjoyable Kushiel's Dart by Jacqueline Carey so, of course, a little pain for pleasure seems fitting.

I’m mostly using WAR as a proxy for value. I realize that the defensive numbers on Fangraphs are suspect but, we gotta start somewhere, right? WAR takes offense and defense into consideration and the positional adjustments are mitigated by the fact that we are comparing by position group.

Let's get to it:

What I said:

Best Ca: Mike Zunino
This is actually a pretty good group. Zunino has the defensive chops, power potential, and youth to put him over the top but all five, even Chirinos (the oldest, worst hitting of the group) deserves their chance to start.

Reality (min. 50 PA):

Vogt: 115 wRC+, .04 Def       (Athletics)

Pfegley: 106 wRC+, 8.6 Def (Athletics)

Chirinos: 104 wRC+, 5.5 Def             (Rangers)

Castro: 76 wRC+, 10.6 Def    (Astros)

C. Perez: 82 wRC+, 7.0 Def  (Angels)

Ianetta: 80 wRC+, 5.4 Def      (Angels)

Conger: 107 wRC+, -1.6 Def (Astros)

Sucre: 15 wRC+, 6.3 Def       (Mariners)

Zunino: 47 wRC+, 6.9 Def      (Mariners)

Oh, oh my heavens. This is...this is tragic. The only reason that Jesus Sucre has a lower WAR than Mike Zunino is because he played so much less than Mike. I think I'm going to be sick.

I did predict a pretty good catching group all around and I think I hit that nail on the head. Everything other than the Zunino bad times. But, wow, what a miss.

The Athletics put together the best catching group and Vogt’s 2nd half swoon is not as it appears; he got destroyed in July and then destroyed in August only to have a remedial Sept/Oct.

Chirinos puts the Rangers in good position.

Castro/Conger was a great theory that worked in the real world. Science!

Perez and Ianetta put together a solid effort for the Angels. They’ll miss Ianetta if’n he leaves for greener pastures. Mariners, mayhaps?

Speaking of the Mariners, let’s not speak about them on this topic anymore!

Grade: C (Got it generally, missed…SO so much on the top spot)

What I said:

         

Best 1B: Albert Pujols

Despite his age and massive albatross of a contract, Pujols proved last year that his down 2013 was a (relative) fluke. While he is no longer the towering shadow of doom that he was in his MVP heyday, he still ranks as the best of the bunch here.

Other thoughts: I’m not sold on Prince’s return to form; I’ll believe it when I see it. Logan and Ike seem about equivalent. Jon Singleton has scary potential…if he can cut down on the whiffs.

Reality (min. 50 PA):

Mitch Moreland (Rangers)      2.1 WAR

Albert Pujols (Angels)             2.0 WAR

Prince Fielder  (Rangers)        1.6 WAR

Marwin Gonzalez (Astros)      1.5 WAR

Mark Canha (Athletics)           1.4 WAR

C.J. Cron (Angels)                  0.5 WAR

Mark Trumbo (Mariners)        0.4 WAR

Chris Carter (Astros)               0.3 WAR

Efren Navarro (Angels)          0.1 WAR

Jon Singleton  (Rangers)        0.1 WAR

Logan Morrison (Mariners)     -0.2 WAR

Adam Rosales (Rangers        -0.2 WAR

Ike Davis (Athletics)                -0.4 WAR

Max Muncy (Athletics)           -0.5 WAR

Jesus Montero (Mariners)      -0.5 WAR

Albert Pujols good but not a towering shadow of doom? Check.

Albert Pujols best of the bunch? Not check (though, just barely)

Prince not returned to form? Mmmmeh. Could go either way. 1) He hit well (124 wRC+) 2) He didn’t really play 1B, mostly DH’d 3) He didn’t hit as well as he used to.

Logan and Ike being about equivalent? Mmmmeh. Logan hit better but Ike was less of a disaster in the field. Ultimately, that makes Logan more valuable but roughly equivalent? Mmmmeh.

Singleton’s potential? Spent most of 2015 acquitting himself well in AAA. Still strikes out a lot but made progress in reducing Ks. Still just 24? I say check.

 Grade: B

What I said:

 Best 2B: Robinson Cano

He is the superstar straw that stirs the Mariner’s drink. He is butter smooth in the field, can spray line drives in his sleep, and is a positive ambassador both in and out of the clubhouse. He’s being paid a fortune but, good God, he just might be worth every penny.

Other thoughts: Ben Zobrist was an inspired get for the A’s. Wait…Altuve the elf is just 24? God, Astros, you and your young talent-base…

Reality (min. 50 PA):

Jose Altuve 4.3 WAR

Roughned Odor 2.3 WAR

Robinson Cano 2.1 WAR

Ben Zobrist 2.1 WAR

Johnny Giavotella 1.1 WAR

Brett Lawrie     0.6 WAR

Eric Sogard     .04 WAR

Taylor Featherston      0.1 WAR

Adam Rosales            -0.2 WAR

Willie Bloomquist         -0.6 WAR

*Bonus* Nick Franklin            -0.8 WAR

Altuve just about lapped the field. And he’s still just 25. Jeez.

Cano had a weird parasite and underperformed. The Mariners’ medical staff is currently a jokeshow.

Zobrist: Good get.

Grade: B

What I said:

         Best 3B: Adrian Beltre

I’m so happy that my brain and my heart agree here. Adrian is one of my favorite players. There are no adequate adjectives to describe his defense and he’s currently in the midst of hitting as well as he ever has in his career. He may be getting up there in age but I see no decline for at least a couple more years. And the world is better for it.

Other thoughts: Kyle Seager is in prime position this year to take a step in the national perception from quality starter to star. His defense at third has improved tremendously over the past couple of years and he’ll be hitting behind the M’s big 3 & 4. Brett Lawrie is a top-flite budding star…if he can stay healthy. Getting off of the Toronto turf may help with that. Freese and Lowrie are solid veteran stop-gaps.

Reality (min. 50 PA):

Adrian Beltre 4.6 WAR

Kyle Seager 3.9 WAR

David Freese 2.2 WAR

Luis Valbuena 1.2 WAR

Jed Lowrie      1.0 WAR

Brett Lawrie     0.6 WAR

Joey Gallo       0.6 WAR

Jonathan Villar            0.2 WAR

Kaleb Cowart  -0.1 WAR

Beltre: *glowing*

Seager: *nods* Yup.

Lawrie: *shakes head* Nope. Stayed healthy. Didn’t do great. Stock: down.

Freese/Lowrie: *nods* Yup.

Grade: B

What I said:

Best SS: No Comment

Yuck. Brad Miller hasn’t proven a darn thing with his bat but has proven his ability to lapse defensively. He has potential but I can’t believe it until I see it sustained. Elvis is also on the ‘prove-it’ train and has doubled-down on his ticket. Poor TEX, Jurickson would’ve done wonders this year. Erick Aybar…nah. Jed Lowrie…nah. I have no idea who Marcus Semien is but a cursory glance has proven intriguing. ::Shakes fist:: AAAAAssss!

Reality (min. 50 PA):

Carlos Correa 3.3 WAR

Ketel Marte     1.7 WAR

Marcus Semien          1.7 WAR

Elvis Andrus    1.6 WAR

Jed Lowrie      1.0 WAR

Erick Aybar     1.0 WAR

Brad Miller       0.9 WAR

Jonathan Villar            0.2 WAR

Chris Taylor    -0.4 WAR

Uh. 20 (now 21) year old Carlos Correa just kicked down the door of AL West shortstops. Damn.

Brad Miller w/ potential if he can be consistent? Check. Same issues still apply.

Elvis picked it in the field with the best of ‘em but struggled at the plate.

Aybar: There are worse things than 1.0 WAR at SS. I shouldn’t have been so dismissive!

Semien: NOW I know what a Marcus Semien is. He was and is, indeed, intriguing.

Grade: B

No stand out except who for Carlos Correa and who saw him being this good this early?

What I said:

Best LF: Evan Gattis

Evan is going to play LF, DH, and some Ca this year. He’s making the transition from the Senior Circuit and that can prove troublesome at times but he’s got power for days and is 28 with experience.

Other thoughts: The Ackley/Weeks platoon is intriguing. Are the Angels really going to put Cowgill out there every day?

Reality (min. 50 PA):

Colby Rasmus                        2.8 WAR

Franklin Gutierrez       2.3 WAR (WHAT!?)

Seth Smith                  2.2 WAR

Colin Cowgill               0.4 WAR

Daniel Robertson        0.3 WAR

Josh Hamilton             0.2 WAR

Sam Fuld                    0.1 WAR

Evan Gattis                 0.0 WAR

Dustin Ackley              -0.6 WAR

Rickie Weeks              -0.7 WAR

Matt Joyce                  -1.4 WAR

Colby Rasmus takes the AL West LF crown (he also played center and right, but the majority of his appearances were in left). Evan Gattis’ positional WAR adjustment hurts him here as he hit DH far, FAR, more than he played any other position. That said, a 99 wRC+ is not what I was expecting.

BAW GAWD, KING, THAT’S FRANKLIN GUTIERREZ’ MUSIC! Out of nowhere storms back Franklin. Combined with Seth Smith they made a potent combo. That’s offset by the terrible, awful, no good, very bad platoon the Mariners were running out at the beginning of the year. Ackley/Weeks = intriguing? I suck.

The Angels did not put Cowgill out there every day because he sucked offensively.

No call on Rasmus Gutierrez, or Smith. Wrong call on Ackley/Weeks and Gattis.

Grade: F

What I said:

Best CF: Mike Trout

LULZ

Reality (min. 50 PA):

Mike Trout                   9.0 WAR (LULZ)

Billy Burns                   2.3 WAR

Austin Jackson           2.1 WAR

Jake Marisnick           1.8 WAR

Delina Deshields         1.3 WAR

Carlos Gomez             0.9 WAR

Leonys Martin             0.4 WAR

Trout.

Nothing else to write home about

Grade: A

What I said:

Best RF: Kole Calhoun

String me up for putting Kole over Golden Boy Springer. Go ahead. But you can’t discount the volatility associated with George. Kole has a year’s worth of experience on him and has established himself as better-than-solid. Talk to me again in two years when George is far and away the best RF on this list but, for today, considering track-record and youth relative to the league, give me Kole.

Other thoughts: The Ruggiano/Smith platoon intrigues. I loved Shin-Soo as having the potential to live up to his most recent free-agent contract. Underrated player, if that’s possible. Josh Reddick is able to return from the DL on 04/11 and the A’s will be much better for it.

Reality (min. 50 PA):

Kole Calhoun              3.8 WAR

George Springer         3.7 WAR

Shin-Soo Choo           3.5 WAR

Josh Reddick              3.0 WAR

Mark Trumbo              0.4 WAR

Justin Ruggiano          -0.1 WAR

Kole Calhoun outperformed George Springer (just barely). I called it.

George Springer is also good. I called it.

Ruggianno/Smith was intriguing. Smith was good and Ruggiano, after being powerflushed in Seattle, made quite a run for the Dodgers.

Trumbo’s only here because he played RF for the Diamondbacks. He’s a 1B in Seattle.

Shin-Soo Choo: I called it.

Josh Reddick: I called it.

Grade: A

What I said:

Best DH: Nelson Cruz

This is pretty much a toss-up between Chris Carter and Nelson Cruz. I was going to put Chris here because of the age gap but it’s going to be a hot summer and I’m going to need him close by to generate a breeze. Joyce’s ISO took a dip last year and his BABIP was at an all-time high. I’m not terribly high on his prospects this year or down the road. Count me out on Country Breakfast, a bad-body post-peak DH that was under replacement level last year (please note that his nickname alone gets him 758 extra points on my scale).

Reality (min. 50 PA):

Nelson Cruz    4.8 WAR

Prince Fielder  1.6 WAR

C.J. Cron        0.5 WAR

Chris Carter    0.3 WAR (<- 1B)

Evan Gattis     0.0 WAR

Billy Butler       -0.7 WAR

Matt Joyce      -1.4 WAR

Not a toss-up between Cruz and Carter. Cruz still took the top spot, though. Just like I said.

Joyce didn’t look so great to me. Check.

Out on Country Breakfast: Check.

Grade: B

What I said:

Best SP: Felix Hernandez

Best SP: Sonny Gray

Best SP: Dallas Keuchel

Best SP: Hisashi Iwakuma

Best SP: Collin McHugh

Reality (min. 100 IP):

Dallas Keuchel                   6.1 WAR

Collin McHugh                   3.9 WAR

Sonny Gray                         3.8 WAR

Felix Hernandez                               2.8 WAR

Lance McCullers               2.8 WAR

Replace Iwakuma with McCullers and I sweep (though, not in the order predicted).

Keuchel went CRAZY!

Felix had a down year, his first year with a WAR under 3 since his debut season in 2005.

Astros have 3 of the top five SP from last year at ages 27, 28, and 22. SMDH.

Grade: A

Conclusion:

Grades: C, B, B, B, B, F, A, A, B, A

One critical failure, three critical successes, five very good predictions, and one average one.

Hey, I’m okay at this!