03/31/2014 - Opening Day

The LAAOA hosted the M's on their respective opening days for this, the 2014 baseball season. Felix Hernandez took the opening day start, his seventh in his Mariner career. It would have been the eighth but, remember when Bill Bavasi forced Eric Bedard ahead of Felix in, what was it, 2008 in order to justify his trade? Mariners!

Anyway, Felix was good, Trout hit an otherworldly HR, and then Felix got mad. If you didn't know, a mad F
elix is the best pitcher in the Show. He rained hot fire onto Anaheim as if he were Alduin in the opening scene of Skyrim. Mike Trout said after the game, "Once we scored three runs on him he flicked a switch and went into nasty mode." Felix's final line?

AP Photo/Jae C. Hong

6 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 11 K

It was the top of the seventh that really stood out to me, though. Felix knew that he was done, that he wasn't going back out for the bottom of the inning. The team was down 3-2. It was all too familiar a song: Felix pitched well but the Mariner's offense couldn't get him a win. Felix cares about wins. He crouched at the end of the dugout while the Mariner offense went to work, watching, willing his team to score some runs and put him in line, if not for a win, at least a no-decision. Zunino triples (!) home Ackley. 3-3. Felix roars. Abe Almonte legs out a double, scoring Zunino. 4-3. Felix transforms into a Naga, a part-snake-part-human, nictitates his eye-membranes, sheds his skin, and in a flash of eye-searing brightness, emerges as a new man.

Jeff Gross/Getty Images

That moment. That moment right there was symbolic. No longer was this a Mariners team of the past. No longer was this team mired in the mediocrity of failure. This was a new team and everyone in the dugout and, dare I say, every Mariner fan watching on TV felt it. This, this ::shakes your collar:: THIS is what a turn-around felt like.

It is too soon to see if the team can sustain this kind of momentum but if the team were to turn it all around, that is what it would look like. Do not miss this.

Not content to sit on their laurels, indicative of this team's attitude as a new, never-quit team, they came up in the ninth and batted around, scoring 6 more. Smoak with a 3-run no-doubt shot that it looks like surprised even him pulled to right field and then the piling on with a heck of a lot of walks brought home by an Ackley triple.

Errata:

• I hope Logan Morrison is good because I find it difficult to root for him.
• Zunino looked overmatched at the plate. Hope his time in the bigs helps.
• The bullpen could be better than it is right now by re-aligning people within the organization. : (
• I love Dustin Ackley's beard. Don't be a hater.
• Miller looked better defensively than he had in years past. That is sooo awesome.

45-day OUCH clause...AmIRite?

The Mariners have the bottle held vertically and are chugging the dregs of Spring Training 2014. No Nick Franklin trade, a late Nick Franklin appearance in RF, Abe Almonte being shoehorned into the leadoff role, and Brad Miller and Dustin Ackley going absolutely bonkers at the plate. Fun times!

And then there's the pitching.

Felix...he's great. All hail.

Iwakuma...hurt finger ligament. He's just starting his spring training now and won't be ready for, like, a month.

Paxton...see my previous posts about him. Going to throw down. Just watch.

Erasmo...Now's his time to step into his own spotlight. He's gotten his feet and cute little cankles wet and he's held his own. He deserves his spot on this staff.

Walker...After a shoulder brusitis scare he's back to throwing minor-league games. He's also about a month or so away. (Crosses fingers)

That's not a bad starting 5. That's actually pretty good.

However, with two of the five hurt that leaves the the M's scratching for depth. The team knew that this might be coming, though, and thoughtfully planned for a veteran or two to hold down the fort until the better pitchers get...um...better.

Scott Baker was making a comeback bid and, while he wasn't necessarily good, he was serviceab..huh? They assigned him to AAA and, in the process, he asked for his release? Oh. Okay.

Well that's fine because Baker was being beat out anyway by Randy Wolf, ye olde junkballer. He pitched about as admirably as he could have and earned a spot on the team. What a relief becau...huh? They tried to renegotiate and in the process offended Randy Wolf to the point where he asked for his release? Oh. Hm.

Okay...

So that leaves us two spots for some combination of:
Roenis Elias, Brandon Maurer, Blake Beavan, Hector NoeICan'tEvenFinishTypingHisName

Roenis: Got as high as AA last year. My understanding is that he might be good but needs to refine his offspeed pitches and lock in his arm angle. Sounds like the minors would be the most ideal place for him as a professional at this point.

Brandon: My opinion is that he's destined for the bullpen. His mechanics get all loosey-goosey after the second and third times through the lineup.

Blake: Good stuff but can't seem to pitch worth a darn. Beavan gives me a sad face.

Hector: Good stuff but can't pitch worth a darn. There's a subtle distinction between him and Blake. Did you catch it?

NONE of those four should be anywhere close to your starting rotation depth.

Sooo...way to go Mariners. You had the superior options in the palm of your hand and you done f*cked it up in a way that only you could have. Even if it were they right financial and baseball decisions (which I would argue against), now that the 45-day Wolf thing has appeared on Deadspin it seems that it might have been worth it to have not made the decsions they did in order to avoid yet another public relations disaster.

2014 Mariners: We Have No Idea What We're Doing

: (

Paxton Makes The Heart Grow Fonder

You heard it here third. James Paxton is going to detonate the league this year and establish himself as the M's solid #2 from here on out. Might as well start discussion on buying out his free agent years now because he's only going to get more expensive on a rediculous scale from here on out.

What makes me believe this? Wehehelll I'm glad you asked.

• Paxton's a power pitcher.

This has multiple benefits. Firstly, power pitchers tend to dominate by striking out a lot of guys. If you're new here, this is a good thing. Secondly, power pitchers tend to have a relatively reduced injury risk. I'd link to the studies on this but I'm feeling lazy right now. Google it.

• Paxton's a lefty.

His fastball plays up because of this. He already throws it hard and the fact that he's a lefty increases his fastball's efficacy from a level of 'simply overwhelming' to the old Raphael Soriano 'Lovcraftian Nightmare' designation.

• Paxton's 25

He's forged his path through the perilous pitching prospect jungle of potential injury further reducing his injury risk (again relatively speaking).

• His Minor League track record is sparkling...and his Major League performance to date has backed it up.

His scouting report, his projections, and his track record are all in sync. All three check the Top Of Rotation indicators. He wasn't apart of 'The Big Three' for no reason.

The above combined with the idea that Iwakuma may have been pitching a little over his head last year and presents a higher injury risk communicates, to me, that Paxton will have solidified himself as this team's #2 before this August.

Book it. Take out a prop bet in Vegas (don't really, I am not liable if you do). Write it in Sharpie.


--So, what would that mean, exactly?--

Well, in terms of this year, quite a bit. A quantifiable bit. It answers precisely 12.5% of our questions.

In order for the year to break the Mariner's way and for them to have a shot at a pennant, eight  question marks have to fall on Seattle's side of the fence.

1. Will Ackley realize his hitting potential?
2. Will Smoak realize his hitting potential?
3. Will Morrison realize his hitting potential?
4. Will Hart's knees hold up?
5. Will Zunino hit bendy pitches?
6. Will Saunders realize his hitting potential?
7. Will Miller establish himself as an everyday player?
8. Will the rotation (behind Felix and Mr. Bear) hold up?
9. Will the bullpen's talent be wasted by improper managerial usage?

That's a lot of questions. But what Paxton's emergence will mean is that question 8, the question of whether the rotation behind Felix and Kuma will hold up, is answered. It means that, instead of fretting about three rotation slots, we're only fretting about two. Those two slots would be filled by some combination of Erasmo/Walker/Baker/Wolf/Maurer/Beavan. Young and veteran talent tossed into a competative couldron? I like my chances.

It's not a statement of "CHAMPIONSHIP" but it checks off one of the questions.

8 to go. Go M's.

Dereliction Of Duty

Did I forget to make a post after the Seahawks won the freakin' Super Bowl? I did! Jeeehosaphat!

Sorry, that introductary paragraph was misleading. The Seahawks didn't actually win the Super Bowl. They utterly dominated what was smugly referred to as the best offense in the history of the game. 43-8. The defense DISMANTLED and GROUND TO DUST each individual component of that offensive machine and looked like they belonged in a higher league doing it. It was a HUMILIATION, pure and simple.

I normally wouldn't revel so obnoxiously but the lead-up to the game had the Bronco-backers so...infuriatingly smug that the schadenfruede is a delicious gelato. <--simile

That is all. #FelixHernandez #FaceOfMLB

(psst...that's not how it works)

QUIET YOU!

12/11/13 Errata

Did you know:

Justin Smoak DESTROYED right-handers last year? It’s true. 134 wRC+ against last year and it might not be a fluke. Smoak has generally hit right-handers better than lefties. Sure, he had an even split in 2010 and the trend was reversed during his bizarre 2012. But, generally speaking, the platoon designation on Smoak could be appropriately applied. He could be a valuable player if deployed correctly.

It is time to stop thinking of Justin as a player who has a chance to ‘grow into his potential.’ Continuing to do this does both him and his team a disservice.

Deploy Smoak as the left-handed half of a platoon and your team could be cooking with some seriously undervalued gas.

::smug:: Well, it’s now obvious that the Mariners have learned their lesson about deploying resources appropriately. When it came to Mike Carp, they watched the BoSox turn a puzzling player into a key cog of a championship machine when they gave him a niche. But the cleats are on the other foot now because the Mariners have acquired Logan Morrison to platoon with Justi...huh?

What? Logan Morrison has the same platoon split? Only not as good against righties? And still terrible against lefties?

Oh.

Well crapbaskets.

 

AhCHOO!

Erryone’s saying, “Don’t sign Choo! 7 years, $140 mil. Is way too expensive!” ::fake swoon::

Look gobbledonkeys. Sign Choo, overpay him even, and don’t look back.

1)      The Mariners still have plenty of money to spend. Overpaying Choo would not hinder them financially now or in the future.

2)      What else are they going to spend it on? Three Brad Hawpes and a Jon Garland? You’ll still have plenty of room to extend Seager.

3)      Dude is money at the plate. He projects as a 130 wRC+ for next year and has a skillset that ages well.

4)      He sure wouldn’t be blocking anybody. We have no outfielders in the Majors OR the Minors. You want Abe Almonte holding down a line-up spot for a pennant race? Depend on Saunders or Ackley?

Sign Shin-Soo Choo.

Additional moves I would pursue as of today:

• Trade Nick Franklin for Country Breakfast (Alternatively, find a platoon partner for LoMo)

• Trade Erasmo Ramirez for Colby Rasmus

• Sign Tanaka
• Find a legitimate alternative to Zunino (???)

That gives us field of:

		2014 wRC+ (projected)
Ca	Zunino	90
1B	Butler	114
2B	Cano	131
3B	Seager	111
SS	Miller	104
LF	Choo	130
CF	Rasmus	110
RF	Hart	118
DH	LoMo	109

That's a lot of triple-digits in there. Tell me we couldn't go to war in the AL West with that.

Robinson Cano

Robinson Cano - Seattle Mariner

Heh. Heh heh. Hehahahaha. HAAAhaahhahahahah. HAAAAAHAHAHHAHAHA!!!!11!!1!

Seriously, screw those out there that are wringing their hands at the cost.
::mockingly whiny:: "Nine years! $240 Million." ::Pretends to swoon::

1) It ain't your money. Why do you care?

2) It doesn't hinder their acquiring additional resources. They could, quite literally, make FOUR MORE of these blockbuster contracts THIS YEAR and still be fine financially. There is no salary cap. They have money coming out of their ears.

3) If Robinson gets bad as he gets older then you trade him or cut him and eat the money. It's been done MANY times before. That's how it GOES.

4) This move legitimizes the organization. Without hyperbole. They weren't a legitimate baseball club before. One day later, they are.

This is cause for celebration. Celebrate.

Domino Effect
Franklin will be moved as part of a trade package for a legit hitting outfielder. Giancarlo, I'm still looking at you.

Other free agents are about to be signed. Catcher, DH, SP, RP, and OF. The team missed out on the catcher train so there are only dregs left. That means that a minor trade for a catcher must be in discussion. Nothing that would block Zunino for a long time, just a guy that'll let him develop.

OMG

This is awesome. Welcome to Seattle, Robinson. Welcome back, modicum of hope. I've missed you.

What The Seahawks Should Do After They Win The Super Bowl This Season

Yes, I will write about the Seahawks whenever the whim strikes me. You have no choice in the matter. You don't get another turn to debate. Time to face your permenant fate. Now Dalek my balls. (Exterminate!)

The 'Hawks are 6-1 as we sit today and after analyzing the team's current state and comparing that to the players' contract statuses, here are my thoughts as to what the team should do after they win the Super Bowl (heh):

• The team should renegotiate lucerative contract extensions with Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas
• The team should sign veteran DT Jason Hatcher
• The team should prioritize re-signing, in order:
• Michael Bennett
• Golden Tate
• Walter Thurmond III
• Doug Baldwin
• Clinton McDonald
• Brandon Browner
• O'Brien Schofield
• Steven Hauschka
• This would leave the following players as free agents. If you can get 'em back cheap, great. If not, let 'em move on:
• Breno Giacomini
• Tarvaris Jackson
• Tony McDaniel
• Chris Maragos
• Jeron Johnson
• Lemuel Jeanpierre
• Anthony McCoy
• Mike Morgan
• Paul McQuistan
• If all the above is completed the team's priorities heading into the draft would be (along with the reason as to why the position is a position of need):
• OT - Talent/Depth
• TE - Talent/Depth
• DT - Talent/Value
• DE - Value
• FS - Depth
• SS - Depth
• CB - Value/Depth
• WR - Value/Depth
• C  - Depth/Value

Finding adequate value in the next two drafts would allow the team to re-negotiate RW3's contract in 2015 (the earliest opportunity that they can do it). Also, with only three positions  identified as needing to be upgraded talent-wise, the team would be in a good position to go into the 2014 season with expectations of dynastic magnitude. Only role players would be heading into 2015 without a contract (Farwell, Gresham, Smith, Maxwell, Caprenter, Wright, Avril, Kearse, and Clemmons.)

Now, addressing the quibbles:
Why would you let Giacomini and McDaniel walk if OT and DT are such a dire need?
Great question. Glad you've been paying attention. My premise in letting both go is that their respective upsides are limited. We are looking to upgrade the talent at the positions. Sure, both would be great for depth purposes but if this team is going to improve in any marked way (and they should always be looking to do so) they need to upgrade the upside, if you will.

Salary cap, yo. You can't just say 're-sign these guys.' and expect it to happen.
You're absolutely right. There are people more intelligent and more in tune with the salary cap situation than I am. I do not know how feasible this offseason would be as presented. I think and kinda feel it should be feasible. None of those feelings are backed up by solid data, however. Please, if you want to breakdown, with specific numbers and historical precedent, how feasible or not this scenario is, please present it in the comments. I'd love to nosh off of your expertiese.

Anthony McCoy? You're just casting him off?
Eeeehhh. I vascilated between having him on the re-sign list below Hauschka and letting him walk as a free agent. What it came down to is 1) He's been hurt all season and, thus, he shouldn't command too much on the open market and 2) His upside isn't all that great. He's servicable as depth but if you're bringing him back at any contract number that restricts cap space that should go to the stars, I'd say he's not worth it.

Who's going to be your back-up QB? Not B.J. surely?
Maybe. Why not? And don't call me Shirley.
Basically, I don't care enough about the back-up position to lose any sleep over it. If they can re-sign Tarvaris at the veteran minimum, great. But have you seen the QB play this year? There's no way he doesn't sign for a couple million $ and make it into a QB competition somewhere.