You heard it here third. James Paxton is going to detonate the league this year and establish himself as the M's solid #2 from here on out. Might as well start discussion on buying out his free agent years now because he's only going to get more expensive on a rediculous scale from here on out.
What makes me believe this? Wehehelll I'm glad you asked.
- Paxton's a power pitcher.
This has multiple benefits. Firstly, power pitchers tend to dominate by striking out a lot of guys. If you're new here, this is a good thing. Secondly, power pitchers tend to have a relatively reduced injury risk. I'd link to the studies on this but I'm feeling lazy right now. Google it.
His fastball plays up because of this. He already throws it hard and the fact that he's a lefty increases his fastball's efficacy from a level of 'simply overwhelming' to the old Raphael Soriano 'Lovcraftian Nightmare' designation.
He's forged his path through the perilous pitching prospect jungle of potential injury further reducing his injury risk (again relatively speaking).
- His Minor League track record is sparkling...and his Major League performance to date has backed it up.
His scouting report, his projections, and his track record are all in sync. All three check the Top Of Rotation indicators. He wasn't apart of 'The Big Three' for no reason.
The above combined with the idea that Iwakuma may have been pitching a little over his head last year and presents a higher injury risk communicates, to me, that Paxton will have solidified himself as this team's #2 before this August.
Book it. Take out a prop bet in Vegas (don't really, I am not liable if you do). Write it in Sharpie.
--So, what would that
mean, exactly?--
Well, in terms of this year, quite a bit. A quantifiable bit. It answers precisely 12.5% of our questions.
In order for the year to break the Mariner's way and for them to have a shot at a pennant, eight question marks have to fall on Seattle's side of the fence.
- Will Ackley realize his hitting potential?
- Will Smoak realize his hitting potential?
- Will Morrison realize his hitting potential?
- Will Hart's knees hold up?
- Will Zunino hit bendy pitches?
- Will Saunders realize his hitting potential?
- Will Miller establish himself as an everyday player?
- Will the rotation (behind Felix and Mr. Bear) hold up?
- Will the bullpen's talent be wasted by improper managerial usage?
That's a lot of questions. But what Paxton's emergence will mean is that question 8, the question of whether the rotation behind Felix and Kuma will hold up, is answered. It means that, instead of fretting about three rotation slots, we're only fretting about two. Those two slots would be filled by some combination of Erasmo/Walker/Baker/Wolf/Maurer/Beavan. Young and veteran talent tossed into a competative couldron? I like my chances.
It's not a statement of "CHAMPIONSHIP" but it checks off one of the questions.
8 to go. Go M's.
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