As of today the Mariners are in the midst of a 7 game
winning streak. This streak will last forever unto eternity; the Mariners will
never lose again.
Seriously, though. This streak hasn’t been a (total) fluke.
The team has been playing noticeably, quantifiably, sustainably better since
July 1st. Well, offensively-speaking. The pitching has been flukey.
Felix and Mr. Bear, sure. But Joe Saunders and Aaron Harang? Erasamo’s coming
up today, who’s been our 5th starter? I have no idea. But whoever it
was must’ve pitched like a rookie Nomo because our pitching stats since 07/01
are ridiculous. They are worthy of ridicule. Because they are so unbelievable.
Who would believe them? Whoever would believe them should be ridiculed. Hence,
the numbers themselves deserve the same treatment.
This has been the first ray of hope that the fan base has
seen in a very long time. It’s like the past 10 years have had the overcast sky
from when Morpheus and Neo first had a sit-down chat after Neo jacked in for
the first time. And then, for the briefest of moments, we see those clouds
start to part a bit. If we were ever to see blue sky again, what would the
beginning stages of that look like? If this were a Mariners turn-around, what
would the beginning stages of that look like? It’s easy to believe that it
would look a lot like what we’ve seen these past 23 days.
Which leads me to wonder about next season’s Mariners team
and what that would look like. Now, I’ve made two assumptions about next year.
One easily defendable one and one very unlikely one. But it’s my fantasy and I
don’t care. There’s reasoning behind them and I will spell that out. I will
project future performance and explain the reasoning behind those projections,
too. This is all a fool’s errand anyway so if you get your panties in a bunch
be sure to stop and reset before responding aggressively. Try to attack the
reasoning I present as opposed to, well, anything else. That being said, as
Michael Bolton says in that one LonelyIsland video, “Boys, let’s get to it.”
(echo)
Assumptions:
·
Morales re-signed to a one-year qualifying offer
·
Mariners trade Taijuan Walker, Jesus Montero,
Chris Taylor, Stephen Pryor, and Tyler Pike to the Marlins for Giancarlo
Stanton
Reasoning:
With regards to Morales, Dave Cameron makes an excellent
case for the Morales one-year qualifying offer here.
With regards to the trade for Giancarlo Stanton:
·
Stanton is about to start getting expensive so,
of course the Marlins will listen to offers.
·
The price will be very high. No need to dick
around with that “trade Aaron Harang for Miguel Cabrera” crap. We have to be
realistic.
·
Taijuan Walker is a platinum-plated premium pitching
prospect. Jesus Montero was THE premium prospect just last year. Chris Taylor
was drafted for his superlative shortstop defense and has been tearing the
cover off the ball throughout his professional career in the minors (currently
wRC+ing 142 in AA) to boot. Stephen Pryor is the best young-major league ready
bullpen arm that the Mariners have. Tyler Pike is one of the ‘Big Three’ in the
low minors: Victor Sanchez, Luiz Gohara, and Tyler Pike.
This is as premium a package as the Marlins
could hope to get. Many people would howl at the cost.
·
Jack Z would do this deal because:
o
He is not
afraid to make a big splash.
He tried to get Roy Halladay out of the Blue Jays before he went to the
Phillies. He DID get Cliff freaking Lee. He made the deal to get BJ Upton (which, reportedly, included Taijuan)
before BJ vetoed it. He backed up the Brinks Truck for Prince Fielder and Josh
Hamilton.
o
He is
desperate for a middle-of-the-order bat.
See the comments above re: Prince, Hamilton, and BJ. Those are all recent
events.
o
There are
no other middle-of-the-order bats available.
It’s
a seller’s market; it’s Stanton or bust.
So, with that being said, let’s take a look at our offense:
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Offense
|
|
Name
|
2013 wRC+
|
2014 wRC+
|
Comments
|
|
Ca
|
Zunino
|
81
|
85
|
Very mild progress due to being rushed.
|
|
1B
|
Smoak
|
123
|
120
|
Maintain production due to 2013 consolidation year.
|
|
2B
|
Franklin
|
119
|
110
|
Mild regression because “What the hell rookie!?”
|
|
3B
|
Seager
|
131
|
120
|
Mild regression because he can’t
be a star…can he?
|
|
SS
|
Miller
|
119
|
110
|
Mild regression because “What the hell rookie!!?”
|
|
LF
|
Saunders
|
86
|
95
|
Mild improvement due to increased consistency.
|
|
CF
|
Ackley
|
53
|
90
|
Significant improvement due to 2013 consolidation
year.
|
|
RF
|
Stanton
|
121
|
120
|
Maintains reduced current production due to Mariners.
|
|
DH
|
Morales
|
122
|
120
|
Maintains production due to this is who he is.
|
Please note that 100 wRC+ means league average.
These are conservative projections. They do not account for
the significant upside that lurks on this very young team. Almost each player could
wildly outperform those projections.
There are no black holes. The biggest risks come in the form
of Saunders, Ackley, and Zunino. All three have positive risk associated with
them as well.
Look at this lineup. Just look at it.
1 Miller 110
2 Franklin 110
3 Seager 120
4 Stanton 120
5 Morales 120
6 Smoak 120
7 Saunders 95
8 Zunino 85
9 Ackley 90
I am not going to do this exercise for the bench. Too
speculative. (says the guy penciling Stanton into next year’s lineup)
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Pitching
|
|
Name
|
2013 xFIP
|
2014 xFIP
|
Comments
|
|
SP1
|
Felix
|
2.71
|
2.75
|
Felix is a god-king and shows no signs of slowing
down.
|
|
SP2
|
Iwakuma
|
3.26
|
3.75
|
Current level of production seems legit. Regression for no known
reason because Mariners.
|
|
SP3
|
Erasmo
|
N/A
|
3.75
|
Erasmo’s rookie xFIP was 3.75. Seems legit.
|
|
SP4
|
--
|
--
|
--
|
Um.
|
|
SP5
|
--
|
--
|
--
|
Oh Geez.
|
|
RP
|
Furbush
|
2.88
|
4
|
Relief pitchers are SO prone to wild fluctuation.
|
|
RP
|
Wilhelmsen
|
4.5
|
4
|
Look, I’m not going to do this for the whole
bullpen.
|
|
Rating
|
xFIP
|
|
Excellent
|
2.9
|
|
Great
|
3.25
|
|
Above Average
|
3.75
|
|
Average
|
4
|
|
Below Average
|
4.2
|
|
Poor
|
4.5
|
|
Awful
|
5
|
Looks like the team will be able to cobble together a decent
enough bullpen out of the currently available crop of arms within the
organization.
I foresee neither Paxton nor Hultzen making the big club
next year. Paxton, while he’s been fairly dominant recently, doesn’t go deep
into games and still shows those control problems. Hultzen is hurt and I’m just
going to bank on that.
If they trade away Walker, the one pitcher who I would feel
reasonably well slotting into the big-league rotation next year, the Mariners
will be staring down the barrel of another scramble for replacement-level arms
to soak up innings. If this team wanted to do any damage, they’d have to go out
and sign one or two decent starting pitchers. No one wants to see Blake Beavan
or ::shudder:: Hector Noesi start a game.
Again, these projections are conservative. Betting on Felix
to maintain dominance is not Pollyanna. Betting on Erasmo to maintain while not
taking his upside into consideration is the definition of conservative.
Regressing Iwakuma for no reason might be considered unreasonably conservative.
Conclusion
Overall the offense, conservatively, would be above average.
It would have upside to boot.
Overall the pitching has quality starters and depth in the
bullpen. The starting pitching would need increased depth and the bullpen would
benefit from increased quality.
Folks, this could be an exciting team. This could be a
playoff contender if handled appropriately this offseason.
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