Bill The Cat Says, "Dust!"

So, Dustin Ackley. Let's break the situation down:

• Dustin has a lot of expectations on him right now.
• He was the number 2 draft pick from the same draft as Mike Trout.
• He is one of three pieces that are required to perform well in order for the re-building years to have been worth it (the other two being Smoak and Montero).
• He has always been projected to hit well.
• This is his third season in the big leagues.
• The Mariners are currently (still) offensively challenged.
• Dustin Ackley has struggled to consistently hit well over the course of his (brief) major-league career.
• Dustin Ackley radically changed his swing mechanics over the offseason.
• Dustin Ackley has not hit well so far this year.

Add all that into a mixing bowl, pour onto a cookie sheet, and bake for 25 min. at 350°. Result? Abject panic in the streets.

Does Dustin need to hit well this year?
No. I mean not in the grand scheme of things. If Dustin's major-league career fell flat on its face, the world would continue, you'd still worry about your job, and life would continue.

BUT! If you're talking about Dustin's hitting in the context of Mariner's success...no. It would make it so much easier if he did but he's valuable even if he isn't a middle-of-the-order bat. He's a good second baseman defensively (he was up for a gold glove last year)(not that that means anything. Brendan Ryan lost out to J.J. Freakin' Hardy last year). He's a smart baserunner and isn't slow. Ultimately, the answer to this question is n...nnye..nnNNNO! *pant pant* But if he doesn't hit well it puts significantly more pressure on the rest of the 'young core' to hit well, which they're not currently doing. So, man, it'd be really nice if he did.

Is Dustin hitting well this year?
Look, his current triple slash is .100/.182./.100 . He's got 3 hits (all singles) in 33 plate appearances. We're not living on Risa, here.

But, see, he's not NOT hitting well, either. He's striking out significantly less than league average (at this point).  His contact rate is WAY through the roof, especially on pitches in the strikezone. His current BABIP is .115. So what's wrong? Why the low BABIP? Ground balls. And that doesn't concern me all that much.

What? The groundballs don't concern you? Why not?
His history. Every time Dustin was promoted to a new minor-league level he started slow by rolling grounders while he got his feet under him. Once that happened *BAM* best hitter in that league. This is his pattern.

What about that new mechanical adjustment? Doesn't that scream panic?
This is partially why I'm optimistic. *boggle* Previously, when we last left Dustin, he had a hole in his swing if you'll remember. It was the outside corner. He'd tip his hat to the pitcher on strike threes on the outside black and left it at that. With his new swing, he's hitting EVERYTHING in the zone. As of today his Z-Contact % is an insane 97.3% (as compared to league average 87.3%). His SwStr% is 2.7% (vs. 9.3% league average). He is NOT. MISSING. THE BALL.

Yeah, but it's weak contact.
Don't give me that. He's hit with authority in the past. His pattern is to hit weakly until he gets his feet under him and then...watch out. Dustin Ackley hasn't lost the ability to hit the ball on the screws. He's acclimating to his new swing. Give him time and, you'll see, he's gonna out Jimmy Rollins Jimmy Rollins.