I compiled a table of the depth charts from each team in the
division sorted by position (as it stands today, 03/31/15). Some position
battles and back-of-the-bullpen roster spots have yet to be determined. As
such, I guessed on some of those. Then I identified the ages and projected
wRC+/FIP (Steamer via Fangraphs) of each roster-spot-holder. What I was looking
to do was to identify which team is best situated for a current run at the
pennant and future.
The table is found at the bottom of this post because of formatting issues
Based on this table here’s my rankings in various categories
in the AL West:
·
Most likely to win the pennant: Mariners Runner Up: Athletics
·
Most likely to collapse: Texas Runner Up: Angels
·
Most likely to experience sustained success: Astros Runner
Up: Mariners
·
Most enviable roster: Mariners Runner Up: Astros
·
Best position player group: Mariners Runner Up: Angels
·
Best Starting pitching: Mariners Runner Up: Athletics
·
Best bullpen: Mariners Runner Up: Athletics
·
Best bench: Astros Runner Up: Athletics
In AL West:
·
Best Ca:
Mike Zunino
This is actually a pretty good group.
Zunino has the defensive chops, power potential, and youth to put him over the
top but all five, even Chirinos (the oldest, worst hitting of the group) deserves
their chance to start.
·
Best 1B:
Albert Pujols
Despite his age and massive albatross of a
contract, Pujols proved last year that his down 2013 was a (relative) fluke.
While he is no longer the towering shadow of doom that he was in his MVP
heyday, he still ranks as the best of the bunch here.
Other thoughts: I’m not sold on Prince’s
return to form; I’ll believe it when I see it. Logan and Ike seem about
equivalent. Jon Singleton has scary potential…if he can cut down on the whiffs.
·
Best 2B:
Robinson Cano
He is the superstar straw that stirs the
Mariner’s drink. He is butter smooth in the field, can spray line drives in his
sleep, and is a positive ambassador both in and out of the clubhouse. He’s
being paid a fortune but, good God, he just might be worth every penny.
Other thoughts: Ben Zobrist was an inspired
get for the A’s. Wait…Altuve the elf is just 24? God, Astros, you and your
young talent-base…
·
Best 3B:
Adrian Beltre
I’m so happy that my brain and my heart
agree here. Adrian is one of my favorite players. There are no adequate
adjectives to describe his defense and he’s currently in the midst of hitting
as well as he ever has in his career. He may be getting up there in age but I
see no decline for at least a couple more years. And the world is better for
it.
Other thoughts: Kyle Seager is in prime
position this year to take a step in the national perception from quality
starter to star. His defense at third has improved tremendously over the past
couple of years and he’ll be hitting behind the M’s big 3 & 4. Brett Lawrie
is a top-flite budding star…if he can stay healthy. Getting off of the Toronto
turf may help with that. Freese and Lowrie are solid veteran stop-gaps.
·
Best SS: No
Comment
Yuck. Brad Miller hasn’t proven a darn
thing with his bat but has proven his ability to lapse defensively. He has
potential but I can’t believe it until I see it sustained. Elvis is also on the
‘prove-it’ train and has doubled-down on his ticket. Poor TEX, Jurickson would’ve
done wonders this year. Erick Aybar…nah. Jed Lowrie…nah. I have no idea who
Marcus Semien is but a cursory glance has proven intriguing. ::Shakes fist::
AAAAAssss!
·
Best LF: Evan
Gattis
Evan is going to play LF, DH, and some Ca
this year. He’s making the transition from the Senior Circuit and that can prove
troublesome at times but he’s got power for days and is 28 with experience.
Other thoughts: The Ackley/Weeks platoon is
intriguing. Are the Angels really going to put Cowgill out there every day?
·
Best CF:
Mike Trout
LULZ
·
Best RF:
Kole Calhoun
String me up for putting Kole over Golden
Boy Springer. Go ahead. But you can’t discount the volatility associated with
George. Kole has a year’s worth of experience on him and has established
himself as better-than-solid. Talk to me again in two years when George is far
and away the best RF on this list but, for today, considering track-record and
youth relative to the league, give me Kole.
Other thoughts: The Ruggiano/Smith platoon
intrigues. I loved Shin-Soo as having the potential to live up to his most
recent free-agent contract. Underrated player, if that’s possible. Josh Reddick
is able to return from the DL on 04/11 and the A’s will be much better for it.
·
Best DH: Nelson
Cruz
This is pretty much a toss-up between Chris
Carter and Nelson Cruz. I was going to put Chris here because of the age gap
but it’s going to be a hot summer and I’m going to need him close by to
generate a breeze. Joyce’s ISO took a dip last year and his BABIP was at an all-time
high. I’m not terribly high on his prospects this year or down the road. Count
me out on Country Breakfast, a bad-body post-peak DH that was under replacement
level last year (please note that his nickname alone gets him 758 extra points
on my scale).
·
Best SP:
Felix Hernandez
·
Best SP:
Sonny Gray
·
Best SP:
Dallas Keuchel
·
Best SP:
Hisashi Iwakuma
·
Best SP:
Collin McHugh
I’m down on Jared Weaver. Honestly I have
no idea how he’s had a successful career with his arrow-straight fastball. Now,
that’s more of knock on me than it is on him but… *shrug* I think the Angels’ starting pitching is what’s
going to be their undoing this year although I am high on Shoemaker.
I’m intrigued by the Athletics’ staff. As
always with Billy Beane teams; lots of young upside in the starting pitching
well.
Yovanni Gallardo is going to have his work
cut out for him transitioning to the AL. He’s post-peak as well. TEX will really miss Yu Darvish.
Keuchel and McHugh are probably the two
best young starting pitchers many people have never heard of.
Felix is a blessing to watch. We’ll see if
Iwakuma can keep it together for a whole year. Word is he developed another
blister a few days ago. I’m high on Paxton and Walker. The team is high on Happ
and there are underlying reasons why this might be warranted. It will do us
well to see it play out, though. Roenis Elias had a solid year as a rookie who
jumped up from AA last year and he got bumped back to AAA by Taijuan. Erasmo
has talent but serves up too many meatballs to be consistently good. He’d be a
fourth starter on some of these other teams. Hultzen is back and starting to
kick the door, though he’ll likely be on an innings limit this year. This team
has pitching dee ee pee tee eighch.
General thoughts on the AL West after having completed this exercise:
·
Angels
A collection of aging players makes this
team particularly vulnerable to injury. Coupled with thin, suspect pitching and
we have a recipe for collapse. If they can hold it together they can contend
for the pennant but the odds are stacked against them. One positive note is
that they have relatively good depth in case a stop-loss is necessary.
·
Astros
This team has a collection of quality,
young talent. Unfortunately, they are too young and have no established
superstar that, in my opinion, a championship contender requires gluing them
together. With Correa, Appel, and Santana on their way, though, as well as a
fairly deep farm system to use as ammo in trades, they have the right direction
identified. As a Mariner fan, I envy
their bench depth. If they pull off a big-time move a-la Mariners/Cano last
year, watch out.
·
Athletics
Who the hell knows? Billy Beane blew it all
up, yet again, in order to take a relatively unknown collection of misfits into
battle. It’s worked for him (brilliantly) in the past so we aren’t allowed to
scoff. Looking at their team, though…they don’t have a lot of holes. They don’t
have a lot of capital to work with so investing $30 in Country Breakfast while
trading away “home-grown” budding stars makes one scratch one’s head. Dat young
starting pitching, doe. The only reason they’re a dark horse candidate this
year is because they’re newly thrown together and, therefore, relatively
unknown. Otherwise they’d be touted as the team to beat.
·
Mariners
Seems poised to take the AL West crown this
year. Strong starting pitching, strong bullpen, improved hitting, young talent,
established veterans, solid bench strength…this year’s team has it all. It will
be disappointing if they fail to make the playoffs. Once they get in, they can
go up against anybody in the game. They do need a quality 2Ca, though. Zunino
is too valuable to grind him to dust under an entire season; he’ll need
whatever breaks he can get. Someone like Christian Vazquez (who just went on
the 60-day DL) would be perfect.
·
Rangers
Oh, God, what’s happened to the Rangers?
Jurickson, out all year. Yu, out all year. Prince…cross your fingers. The
hitting is going to be poor, overall, and the pitching is going to be worse. At
least they have a fantastic farm system capped with a Joey Gallo-sized crown
jewel. And don’t forget that they have Adrian Beltre. Bless every moment you
have if you’re a fan of a team that has Adrian Beltre on it.
Table for reference:
Table for reference:
Pos.
|
SEA
|
Age
|
wRC+/ FIP
|
LAA
|
Age
|
wRC+/ FIP
|
OAK
|
Age
|
wRC+/ FIP
|
TEX
|
Age
|
wRC+/ FIP
|
HOU
|
Age
|
wRC+/ FIP
| ||||
Ca
|
Mike Zunino
|
24
|
95
|
Chris Iannetta
|
31
|
105
|
Stephen Vogt
|
30
|
103
|
Robinson Chirinos
|
30
|
84
|
Jason Castro
|
27
|
91
| ||||
1B
|
Logan Morrison
|
27
|
114
|
Albert Pujols
|
35
|
125
|
Ike Davis
|
28
|
117
|
Prince Fielder
|
30
|
132
|
Jon Singleton
|
23
|
102
| ||||
2B
|
Robinson Cano
|
32
|
130
|
Johnny Giavotella
|
27
|
96
|
Ben Zobrist
|
33
|
117
|
Rougned Odor
|
21
|
88
|
Jose Altuve
|
24
|
112
| ||||
3B
|
Kyle Seager
|
27
|
119
|
David Freese
|
31
|
109
|
Brett Lawrie
|
25
|
114
|
Adrian Beltre
|
35
|
127
|
Luis Valbuena
|
29
|
103
| ||||
SS
|
Brad Miller
|
25
|
101
|
Erick Aybar
|
31
|
99
|
Marcus Semien
|
24
|
104
|
Elvis Andrus
|
26
|
87
|
Jed Lowrie
|
30
|
103
| ||||
LF
|
Dustin Ackley
|
27
|
101
|
Collin Cowgill
|
28
|
83
|
Coco Crisp
|
35
|
106
|
Ryan Rua
|
25
|
88
|
Evan Gattis
|
28
|
111
| ||||
CF
|
Austin Jackson
|
28
|
100
|
Mike Trout
|
23
|
167
|
Sam Fuld
|
33
|
84
|
Leonys Martin
|
27
|
93
|
Jake Marisnick
|
24
|
79
| ||||
RF
|
Seth Smith
|
32
|
112
|
Kole Calhoun
|
27
|
117
|
Craig Gentry
|
31
|
88
|
Shin-Soo Choo
|
32
|
119
|
George Springer
|
25
|
117
| ||||
DH
|
Nelson Cruz
|
34
|
117
|
Matt Joyce
|
30
|
111
|
Billy Butler
|
28
|
116
|
Mitch Moreland
|
29
|
95
|
Chris Carter
|
28
|
115
| ||||
2Ca
|
John Baker
|
34
|
52
|
Drew Butera
|
31
|
56
|
Josh Phegley
|
27
|
92
|
Carlos Corporan
|
31
|
81
|
Hank Conger
|
27
|
85
| ||||
UTL
|
Justin Ruggiano
|
32
|
96
|
Josh Rutledge
|
26
|
87
|
Tyler Ladendorf
|
27
|
69
|
Jake Smolinski
|
26
|
86
|
Marwin Gonzalez
|
26
|
76
| ||||
UTL
|
Rickie Weeks
|
32
|
98
|
C.J. Cron
|
25
|
99
|
Eric Sogard
|
28
|
86
|
Adam Rosales
|
31
|
78
|
Colby Rasmus
|
28
|
101
| ||||
UTL
|
Willie Bloomquist
|
37
|
78
|
Grant Green
|
27
|
92
|
Carlos Peguero
|
28
|
92
|
Alex Presley
|
29
|
96
| |||||||
SP1
|
Felix Hernandez
|
29
|
2.74
|
Jared Weaver
|
32
|
4.47
|
Sonny Gray
|
25
|
3.62
|
Yovanni Gallardo
|
29
|
4.33
|
Dallas Keuchel
|
27
|
3.7
| ||||
SP2
|
Hisashi Iwakuma
|
33
|
3.5
|
C.J. Wilson
|
34
|
3.99
|
Scott Kazmir
|
31
|
3.68
|
Derek Holland
|
28
|
3.88
|
Scott Feldman
|
32
|
4.46
| ||||
SP3
|
James Paxton
|
26
|
3.92
|
Matt Shoemaker
|
28
|
3.93
|
Jesse Hahn
|
25
|
4.14
|
Colby Lewis
|
35
|
4.8
|
Collin McHugh
|
27
|
3.85
| ||||
SP4
|
J.A. Happ
|
32
|
4.07
|
Hector Santiago
|
27
|
4.36
|
Kendall Graveman
|
24
|
4.38
|
Ross Detwiler
|
29
|
4.74
|
Roberto Hernandez
|
34
|
4.72
| ||||
SP5
|
Taijuan Walker
|
22
|
3.88
|
Drew Pomeranz
|
26
|
3.95
|
Nick Martinez
|
24
|
5.37
|
Brett Oberholtzer
|
25
|
4.35
| |||||||
RP
|
Tyler Olson
|
25
|
3.77
|
Ryan Mattheus
|
31
|
3.94
|
Jesse Chavez
|
3.75
|
Jonathan Edwards
|
27
|
4.35
|
Joe Thatcher
|
33
|
4.18
| |||||
RP
|
Dominic Leone
|
23
|
3.42
|
Vinnie Pestano
|
30
|
3.68
|
Dan Otero
|
3.73
|
Phil Klein
|
25
|
3.99
|
Kevin Chapman
|
27
|
4.1
| |||||
RP
|
Yoervis Medina
|
26
|
3.75
|
Cesar Ramos
|
30
|
3.88
|
Eric O'Flaherty
|
3.82
|
Roman Mendez
|
24
|
4.37
|
Pat Neshek
|
34
|
3.86
| |||||
RP
|
Tom Wilhelmsen
|
31
|
3.65
|
Fernando Salas
|
29
|
3.81
|
Fernando Abad
|
3.7
|
Shawn Tolleson
|
27
|
3.97
|
Tony Sipp
|
31
|
3.61
| |||||
RP
|
Charlie Furbush
|
28
|
3.28
|
Mike Morin
|
23
|
3.62
|
R.J. Alvarez
|
23
|
3.54
|
Alex Claudio
|
23
|
3.79
|
Luke Gregerson
|
30
|
3.75
| ||||
RP
|
Danny Farquhar
|
28
|
3.24
|
Joe Smith
|
31
|
3.46
|
Evan Scribner
|
3.32
|
Tanner Scheppers
|
28
|
3.94
|
Will Harris
|
30
|
3.74
| |||||
CL
|
Fernando Rodney
|
38
|
3.24
|
Huston Street
|
31
|
3.89
|
Tyler Clippard
|
3.78
|
Neftali Feliz
|
26
|
4.22
|
Chad Qualls
|
36
|
3.66
| |||||
Injuries
|
Chris Taylor
|
24
|
88
|
Cory Rasmus
|
27
|
3.91
|
Jarrod Parker
|
26
|
4.19
|
Martin Perez
|
23
|
4.32
| |||||||
Josh Hamilton
|
33
|
109
|
A.J. Griffin
|
27
|
4.21
|
Jurickson Profar
|
22
|
92
| |||||||||||
Garret Richards
|
26
|
3.24
|
Sean Doolittle
|
28
|
2.81
|
Yu Darvish
|
28
|
3.17
| |||||||||||
Tyler Skaggs
|
23
|
3.7
|
Josh Reddick
|
28
|
114
|
